Note: Over the next two weeks we'll be covering Northwest Missouri (districts 3, 4, 5, 7, 27, 28, 32) and Northeast Missouri (districts 1, 2, 6, 8, 9, 10, 21, 22). Eventually we will cover every district in the state as part of an evolving race rating and campaign finance tracking project. We welcome relevant information or input as we prepare analysis on races. Feel free to email us at [email protected].
Last week we covered the parts of Jackson County within and surrounding the Kansas City area. Most of the seats (districts 37, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44 and 49) are either unchallenged or have very clear Democrat advantages - but we identified Republican Noel Torpey's campaign in the 52nd district as one to watch. In the remaining parts of Jackson County there are three seats without general elections, which we will review first.
Overview: Three Democrats are competing to take over Kate Meiners' seat. One of the candidates, Darrell Curls, is Melba Curls' (3rd District KC Council) brother-in-law. He has almost $2,200 on hand, putting him well ahead of John Maloney ($400 COH) but far behind Kevin McManus, who has amassed an impressive $45,200. Geoff Gerling has collected $2,345.91 along with a number of endorsements.
Overview: Jeff Grisamore has about $2,000 cash on hand in a debt service committee, but activity in his earlier reports suggests that he has been making a very successful attempt at reducing campaign debt: in this election cycle he has collected over $22,000 in receipts. If there was any vulnerability here Democrats didn't take advantage of it. He's being challenged by fellow Republican Annalisa Zapien-Pina.
Overview: No Republicans filed in this extremely Democrat district. Incumbent Michael Brown has under $2,000 on hand, but his two opponents MD Alam and Bill Clinton Young have only filed limited activity reports. All we know about the unfortunately named Bill Clinton Young is that he was disqualified from the 2008 primary for the same seat.
Overview: Jason Holsman has $2,800 on hand - a surprisingly low number given that he's raised $22,300 this cycle. It looks like his campaign has an enormous amount of overhead: we found expenditures of approximately $2700 in phone bills (mostly for a cell phone), $1800 on computer software/equipment and office supplies, $600 in internet bills, $500 in meals and $1200 on a campaign staffer. This might result in some awkward questions from his campaign donors and possibly from other local candidates who might have wanted a helping hand, but his seat appears relatively safe: he won in 2008 with a 32 percent margin, and his Republican challenger Nola Wood hasn't started fundraising yet.
Overview: There hasn't been a lot of activity in this race yet. It's a strongly Democrat district, but the lone Democrat in the race, Diane Egger, has only raised $3,576. There may still be a slight opening for Republican challengers Anna Lynn Vogel and Brent Lasater, the latter of whom filed a limited spending exemption with the Missouri Ethics Commission.
Overview: Democrat John Bullard appears to be making a serious run at this seat, with nearly $30,000 cash on hand. But we have reason to believe his candidacy is weaker than it first appears. First, Bullard has lost two elections to date (the 2004 and 2008 Jackson County Sheriff Democratic primaries), which is only to say he's not a newcomer storming the field. Second, he's been fundraising for a long time (over a year), leaving the question of how long it would take Republican Jeanie Lauer to catch up. How long will his advantage last? In the most recent quarter, Bullard raised only 4.2% in cash contributions of what he did two quarters ago (and only about 30% of what Lauer raised) - marking two straight quarters with significant declines. That's not exactly a display of momentum, something that Bullard needs if he wants to win in a Republican leaning district in a year like this.
Overview: Democrat Clay Rodgers has $38,000 cash on hand, a very impressive fundraising figure for a Democrat in such a Republican district. Where did it come from? Rodgers is a business representative for the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, and that means union money. He's raised over $32,000 from political committees, most of which came from unions. Will union money translate into popular support? It’s harder than you’d think to buy a seat. The unions know that – and if polling doesn’t move in the right direction, expect them to withdraw their support and focus their resources elsewhere. The unions giveth, and the unions taketh away. Republican Sheila Solon has $8,700 cash on hand, which she raised in approximately a third of the time that Rodgers has been fundraising. Rodgers will face Mike Parker in the Republican primary. Parker has $1100 cash on hand.
Overview: Republican Mike Cierpiot, with $24,200 cash on hand, has a significant advantage over Democrat Dave Coffman, who has only $10,200 cash on hand. Both have been fundraising for some time now. This district hasn't seen a competitive general election in more than a decade. Coffman isn't out, by any means, but we don't anticipate strong opposition.
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