Swing State Project has a chart showing how much each district would have to grow:
And from the Post Dispatch, no surprises for Russ Carnahan beyond what seems to be a growing consensus about the outcome of redistricting.
Carnahan's 3rd District currently represents 625,251 residents based on the new Census numbers, making it the second smallest district in the state after District 1, represented by Rep. William Lacy Clay, also a St. Louis Democrat. But because Clay represents a mostly African-American district, under federal law, his congressional district is better protected from change than any of the other districts in the state.
Clay's district must maintain a similar representation of black voters as its current configuration, so that means it's likely that his district will absorb some black voters from Carnahan's district.
"If you can't touch Clay and you can't touch (Kansas City Democrat Emanuel) Cleaver, who's left?" said George Connor, head of the political science department at Missouri State University. "If the Democrats have to choose, it's easiest to give up on Carnahan."
Carnahan couldn't immediately be reached for comment.
Connor said that based on an initial look at the Census numbers, the logical thing for lawmakers to do in the St. Louis region would be to rearrange Akin's district, and carve out much of Carnahan's district for Clay.
That being said, St. Louis leaders will fight for the region to continue to have three congressional districts from the area. The question is whether they can get the numbers to make their case. To draw three St. Louis area congressional districts would require the region to take in some rural areas currently in districts represented by other members of Congress.
Comments