House Primary Prediction Rundown

We were curious about how our primary predictions turned out, and so we scored them against the unofficial election returns: of the 47 races we made predictions for, we were right in 73% (35) of the races.

Here's a list of the winners we didn't expect: Craig Redmon (1), Kurt Bahr (19), Delus Johnson (28), Gary Cross (48), Brent Lasater (53), Dave Hinson (98), Bart Korman (99), Mike Bernskoetter (113), Wanda Brown (116), Mike Kelley (126), Sue Entlicher (133), Diane Franklin (155) and Wayne Wallingford (158).

The highlights:

1. The narrowest race we got wrong: Wayne Wallingford's victory over Debra Tracy in the 158th, by only 66 votes.

2. The biggest surprise: We had called the race for Debra Tracy (158) and Janet Sutherland (99), mothers who were running to replace their sons. We were comfortable in our decision to favor the two given the popularity of their sons, but both lost.

3. The biggest understatement:  We said that Gary Cross was "closing hard" in the 48th District, and he ended up winning by a 43.2% margin.

4. The race where cash played the smallest role: Cal Coker's $23,288.31 in expenditures didn't win him the 133rd district, even with a 2:1 spending advantage over Sue Entlicher. Looking back, it seems like Coker spent too much too early.