The 2010 Missouri House Republican primaries aren't beyond the point of having a few surprise upsets, but for the majority of the seats the pecking order has already been established. We took a look at every primary to see where the clear winners were and which races to get excited about on election night.
Status: Republican Jim Guest is term limited.
Prediction: Glen Klippenstein's name ID and substantial fundraising lead make this seat a lock.
District 10
Status: Democrat Terry Witte is term limited.
Prediction: Jay Houghton will win the primary over Dudley Michael Duke, in large part due to his fundraising - but he'll face a tougher battle in the general.
District 19
Status: Republican Cynthia Davis is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dave Evans and Kurt Bahr have been involved with the Republican party for some time, but we're leaning towards Evans: he's the more experienced candidate, and had more money to spend leading into the final stretch of the campaign.
District 21
Status: Republican Steve Hobbs is term limited.
Prediction: John Cauthorn, a former State Senator, is a lock for this seat.
District 22
Status: Republican Therese Sander is term limited.
Prediction: Randy Asbury has a 2:1 fundraising lead over Tim Remole, and Asbury's role as a county commissioner may help (although he was appointed). Tim Remole is by no means a negligible quantity in this race but we expect Asbury to win.
District 28
Status: Republican Rob Schaaf is term limited.
Prediction: Delus Johnson and Mik Chester have comparable fundraising, and besides Johnson spending on TV and Chester on radio there isn't a lot setting them apart. We're leaning towards Chester because Johnson had to contribute $15k to his own campaign to catch up. Momentum may be on Chester's side.
District 35
Status: Republican Doug Ervin is term limited.
Prediction: The two candidates seem evenly matched. Noel Shull has a 3:2 fundraising lead over TJ Berry, but their spending in the last 30 days of the campaign will be comparable. Berry is Ervin's former treasurer, a connection that may help him secure support, but Noel has been involved in Clay County GOP politics for decades - making it a wash. Berry has also done an impressive amount of door knocking, but Noel Shull has been matching him lately. This race is too close to call.
District 47
Status: Republican Jeff Grisamore is running for re-election.
Prediction: Grisamore's opponent, Annalisa Zapien-Pina, hasn't been raising the sort of money needed to mount a serious challenge.
District 48
Status: Republican Will Kraus is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Bob Gough, Kraus' treasurer, made an early injection of $15k in funds that has kept him in the lead in the fundraising race. That investment may very well earn him the seat but Gary Cross is closing hard.
District 52
Status: Democrat Paul LeVota is term limited.
Prediction: Without hesitation, two-time candidate in the 52nd Noel Torpey will beat Joel Blevins.
District 53
Status: Democrat Curt Dougherty is term limited.
Prediction: Neither candidate is raising a lot of money, but Anna Lynn Vogel was recruited by her fellow Republicans and we think she has the edge in this race over Brent Lasater.
District 55
Status: Republican Bryan Pratt is term limited.
Prediction: Sheila Solon has a history in Blue Springs local government, she's been raising cash, and her opponent Mike Parker trailed off recently. We expect Solon to win.
District 62
Status: Republican Nita Jane Ayres is running for re-election.
Prediction: This seat was a lock for Ayres up until a few days ago, but a surprise $15k injection of funds into Jeff Justus' campaign has leveled the playing field. Ayres has only held the seat for a matter of months, so we're not sure if she has incumbent sticking power.
District 64
Status: Democrat Rachel Storch is moving to New York.
Prediction: Candidate Damien Johnson is rated 'anti-life' by Missouri Right to Life - a big contrast to Patricia Verde's 'pro-life' rating. Expect that to count against him and give Patricia the ammo to win.
District 79
Status: Democrat Al Liese is term limited.
Prediction: Dan Johnson, a 16 year veteran of the Maryland Heights City Council, is expected to win this race.
District 83
Status: Democrat Jake Zimmerman is running for re-election.
Prediction: Patrick Brennan, a small business owner, will beat Roger Teagarden, who isn't running an aggressive campaign.
District 85
Status: Democrat Vicki Lorenz Englund is running for re-election.
Prediction: A 3:1 fundraising advantage for Cloria Brown will help her win against Al Faulstich, who reported limited activity in his 8 day report.
District 88
Status: Republican Andrew Koenig is running for re-election.
Prediction: Koening will trounce Ryan B Meyer, who isn't running a serious campaign.
District 90
Status: Democrat Sam Komo is running for re-election.
Prediction: Expect John McCaherty to win this seat over Ronald Snyder, who filed an exemption declaring his intention to spend less than $500 in the campaign.
District 97
Status: Republican Walt Bivins is term limited.
Prediction: Gary Fuhr, with $27,000 spent in the 8 day reporting period alone, is the clear spending leader over Chris Brown and Bill Zobrist. Brown's $25,000 self-loan helped even the odds a bit - but we're leaning towards Fuhr, even though his two opponents are making a late run at the seat.
District 98
Status: Republican Brian Nieves is term limited.
Prediction: Paul Arand has a 4:3 fundraising advantage over Dave Hinson, and we're really seeing its effectiveness in the final two weeks of the campaign, where Arand has the capacity to outspend his opponent by a significant margin. We think Arand will pull it off.
District 99
Status: Republican Mike Sutherland is term limited.
Prediction: Mike's mom, Janet Sutherland, has the right name to win even if county surveyor Bart Korman has a fundraising advantage. We think voters will pick Janet.
District 109
Status: Republican Scott Dieckhaus is running for re-election.
Prediction: Dieckhaus is the favorite to win this district. His opponent, Cindy McGee, isn't running a strong enough campaign to convince the voters otherwise - we expect to see margins similar to Dieckhaus' 2008 primary.
District 111
Status: Republican Charles Schlottach is term limited.
Prediction: Both Justin Charboneau and Dave Schatz have tenure in local offices, but with a 4:1 fundraising advantage the momentum is clearly on Schatz' side. Expect to see him win on Tuesday.
District 113
Status: Republican Mark Bruns is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dan Klindt and Mike Bernskoetter have raised quite a bit, but Klindt did it in less time and he held back more of his cash until the final month of the campaign, when the spending will count for more. We favor Dan Klindt.
District 114
Status: Republican Bill Deeken is term limited.
Prediction: Chris Wrigley and Edith Vogel are tangling with Jay Barnes, who has the most cash to bear on the race in the final month of the campaign. Wrigley is Barnes' more serious competitor, but we don't think he'll pull off an upset.
District 116
Status: Republican Tom Self is term limited.
Prediction: Teacher Wanda Brown, the mother to one of Rod Jetton's assistants, has the cash advantage - but we're currently favoring Marlin Hammond, a somewhat famous retired football coach.
District 117
Status: Republican Kenny Jones is running for State Senate
Prediction: Both Caleb Jones and Jeanie Lachner have been involved with the Republican party, but Jones' enormous fundraising (over $67,000 receipts) locked this seat down.
District 118
Status: Republican Stanley Cox is running for re-election.
Prediction: Primary challenger William Barlish doesn't stand a chance against incumbent Stanley Cox, who crushed his last primary opponent by a huge margin.
District 119
Status: Republican Larry Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Sandy Crawford probably has a slight advantage in spending ability in the last few weeks of the campaign, and we're not sure if her opponent Warren Love will spend all of his $1k loan. We're leaning slightly towards Sandy Crawford but we're prepared to be surprised.
District 126
Status: Republican Ed Emery is term limited.
Prediction: David Jerome and Mike Kelley are competing in a slightly less than intense primary: both have raised in the avenue of $10,000, but Jerome had more to spend running into the final month of the campaign. We lean to Jerome.
District 128
Status: Republican Bryan Stevenson is term limited.
Prediction: Charlie Davis has a slight advantage over Bill Birkes, with a fundraising advantage of $2,000 that translates into just as much of a spending gap in the final few weeks of the campaign.
District 129
Status: Republican Ron Richard is term limited.
Prediction: With the help of a $20k self loan, attorney Shelly Dreyer has a significant spending advantage in the final month of the campaign - but White isn't running his race alone, he has broader endorsements and support from business organizations. This race is closing fast and we think White will upset Dreyer.
District 130
Status: Republican Kevin Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Businessman Bill Reiboldt will cruise to victory over Lynn Otey, with $50,000 raised over the course of the campaign translating into a more than 2:1 cash advantage. Reiboldt has the resources to run a much more effective campaign.
District 133
Status: Republican Mike Parson is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Cal Coker's $23.3k raised is as much as his two opponents (John Rummel and Sue Entlicher) combined, and was helped along a bit by a last minute self-contribution of $4,000. We expect him to prevail.
District 134
Status: Republican Jim Viebrock is term limited.
Prediction: Viebrock's chosen successor, Thomas Long, is going to win this race. His fundraising is head and shoulders over James Green and Mark Stuppy, the latter of whom lost to Viebrock by a wide margin in a previous primary. Long has raised four times more than either of his opponents.
District 137
Status: Democrat Charlie Norr is running for re-election.
Prediction: Reggie Duke II isn't putting up much of a fight to Melissa Leach, who has been very successful raising funds. Leach may have a real shot in the general election.
District 140
Status: Republican Bob Dixon is term limited.
Prediction: Both Lincoln Hough and Bob Cirtin have raised quite a bit of cash, and with $56.2k in receipts Cirtin has a strong advantage in the sign war. Lincoln is winning the door war, and we think this hard work will pay off in a slight upset.
District 141
Status: Republican Jay Wasson is term limited.
Prediction: Architect Kevin Elmer will win this primary hands down, due largely to his proficient fundraising.
District 143
Status: Republican Maynard Wallace is term limited.
Prediction: Two of the candidates, Mike Lind and Tracey Mooney, have run in primaries in the 143rd before - neither did well then, and both are filing limited activity reports for this election. Expect former superintendent Lyle Rowland to win with more than $10k raised through the course of his campaign.
District 145
Status: Republican Mike Cunningham is term limited.
Prediction: Between the three candidates (Darin Chappell, Stacy Atkison and Lyndall Fraker), a reasonably impressive $82,000 has been raised in this primary. Just under half of that was raised by Lyndall Fraker, who we expect to win.
District 149
Status: Republican Dan Brown is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Eli Steve Gospich and Robert Stoltz aren't running pro forma campaigns, but we don't expect either to stand up to surgeon Keith Frederick, who raised the most money by a 2:1 margin.
District 151
Status: Republican Ward Franz is running for re-election.
Prediction: No serious competition here. Franz will win the primary.
District 152
Status: Democrat JC Kuessner is term limited.
Prediction: Republican Paul Fitzwater outraised his opponent Ron Bohn (pronounced 'bone') by a 4:1 margin. We expect Fitzwater to go on to the general.
District 153
Status: Republican Mike Dethrow is term limited.
Prediction: Steve Cookson's fundraising advantage and background (long-time teacher) put him on the high ground against his opponent Chris Johnston.
District 154
Status: Republican Gayle Kingery is term limited.
Prediction: Attorney Todd Richardson raised significantly more than his opponent Hardy Billington, 55k to 30k. Going into the final month of the campaign Richardson was in a much better position to invest in direct voter contact: we expect Richardson to win.
District 155
Status: Republican Robert Cooper is term limited.
Prediction: Cooper staffer Diane Franklin is making a run at this seat and investing quite a bit of her own money, but Joe Roeger's fundraising advantage will translate into twice the spending power in the final weeks of the campaign. We don't expect Bernie Mowinski to play a serious role in this primary. Roeger will win.
District 157
Status: Republican Scott Lipke is term limited.
Prediction: Donna Lichtenegger and Gerald Adams have been neck and neck in the fundraising race, and spending in the final month is similar, although Lichtenegger held more back for the final week. Both have been very involved in the community (Lichtenegger more so on the political side). We're leaning towards Donna Lichtenegger on this one.
District 158
Status: Republican Clint Tracy is running for county office.
Prediction: Clint's mom, Debra Tracy, outraised her opponent Wayne Wallingford by a significant margin. Wallingford has run for this seat before, getting just 9.24% in a three way primary. We expect Debra Tracy to win.
District 1
Status: Republican Brian Munzlinger is term limited.
Prediction: Neill Mckee was initially favored to win this race because of a $40,000 self loan - or at least, the loan let him decide if he wanted to win. As of the eight day report, he was still sitting on $26,824. If he decided it was worth the investment to spend it all, he will win.
Status: Republican Jim Guest is term limited.
Prediction: Glen Klippenstein's name ID and substantial fundraising lead make this seat a lock.
District 10
Status: Democrat Terry Witte is term limited.
Prediction: Jay Houghton will win the primary over Dudley Michael Duke, in large part due to his fundraising - but he'll face a tougher battle in the general.
District 19
Status: Republican Cynthia Davis is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dave Evans and Kurt Bahr have been involved with the Republican party for some time, but we're leaning towards Evans: he's the more experienced candidate, and had more money to spend leading into the final stretch of the campaign.
District 21
Status: Republican Steve Hobbs is term limited.
Prediction: John Cauthorn, a former State Senator, is a lock for this seat.
District 22
Status: Republican Therese Sander is term limited.
Prediction: Randy Asbury has a 2:1 fundraising lead over Tim Remole, and Asbury's role as a county commissioner may help (although he was appointed). Tim Remole is by no means a negligible quantity in this race but we expect Asbury to win.
District 28
Status: Republican Rob Schaaf is term limited.
Prediction: Delus Johnson and Mik Chester have comparable fundraising, and besides Johnson spending on TV and Chester on radio there isn't a lot setting them apart. We're leaning towards Chester because Johnson had to contribute $15k to his own campaign to catch up. Momentum may be on Chester's side.
District 35
Status: Republican Doug Ervin is term limited.
Prediction: The two candidates seem evenly matched. Noel Shull has a 3:2 fundraising lead over TJ Berry, but their spending in the last 30 days of the campaign will be comparable. Berry is Ervin's former treasurer, a connection that may help him secure support, but Noel has been involved in Clay County GOP politics for decades - making it a wash. Berry has also done an impressive amount of door knocking, but Noel Shull has been matching him lately. This race is too close to call.
District 47
Status: Republican Jeff Grisamore is running for re-election.
Prediction: Grisamore's opponent, Annalisa Zapien-Pina, hasn't been raising the sort of money needed to mount a serious challenge.
District 48
Status: Republican Will Kraus is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Bob Gough, Kraus' treasurer, made an early injection of $15k in funds that has kept him in the lead in the fundraising race. That investment may very well earn him the seat but Gary Cross is closing hard.
District 52
Status: Democrat Paul LeVota is term limited.
Prediction: Without hesitation, two-time candidate in the 52nd Noel Torpey will beat Joel Blevins.
District 53
Status: Democrat Curt Dougherty is term limited.
Prediction: Neither candidate is raising a lot of money, but Anna Lynn Vogel was recruited by her fellow Republicans and we think she has the edge in this race over Brent Lasater.
District 55
Status: Republican Bryan Pratt is term limited.
Prediction: Sheila Solon has a history in Blue Springs local government, she's been raising cash, and her opponent Mike Parker trailed off recently. We expect Solon to win.
District 62
Status: Republican Nita Jane Ayres is running for re-election.
Prediction: This seat was a lock for Ayres up until a few days ago, but a surprise $15k injection of funds into Jeff Justus' campaign has leveled the playing field. Ayres has only held the seat for a matter of months, so we're not sure if she has incumbent sticking power.
District 64
Status: Democrat Rachel Storch is moving to New York.
Prediction: Candidate Damien Johnson is rated 'anti-life' by Missouri Right to Life - a big contrast to Patricia Verde's 'pro-life' rating. Expect that to count against him and give Patricia the ammo to win.
District 79
Status: Democrat Al Liese is term limited.
Prediction: Dan Johnson, a 16 year veteran of the Maryland Heights City Council, is expected to win this race.
District 83
Status: Democrat Jake Zimmerman is running for re-election.
Prediction: Patrick Brennan, a small business owner, will beat Roger Teagarden, who isn't running an aggressive campaign.
District 85
Status: Democrat Vicki Lorenz Englund is running for re-election.
Prediction: A 3:1 fundraising advantage for Cloria Brown will help her win against Al Faulstich, who reported limited activity in his 8 day report.
District 88
Status: Republican Andrew Koenig is running for re-election.
Prediction: Koening will trounce Ryan B Meyer, who isn't running a serious campaign.
District 90
Status: Democrat Sam Komo is running for re-election.
Prediction: Expect John McCaherty to win this seat over Ronald Snyder, who filed an exemption declaring his intention to spend less than $500 in the campaign.
District 97
Status: Republican Walt Bivins is term limited.
Prediction: Gary Fuhr, with $27,000 spent in the 8 day reporting period alone, is the clear spending leader over Chris Brown and Bill Zobrist. Brown's $25,000 self-loan helped even the odds a bit - but we're leaning towards Fuhr, even though his two opponents are making a late run at the seat.
District 98
Status: Republican Brian Nieves is term limited.
Prediction: Paul Arand has a 4:3 fundraising advantage over Dave Hinson, and we're really seeing its effectiveness in the final two weeks of the campaign, where Arand has the capacity to outspend his opponent by a significant margin. We think Arand will pull it off.
District 99
Status: Republican Mike Sutherland is term limited.
Prediction: Mike's mom, Janet Sutherland, has the right name to win even if county surveyor Bart Korman has a fundraising advantage. We think voters will pick Janet.
District 109
Status: Republican Scott Dieckhaus is running for re-election.
Prediction: Dieckhaus is the favorite to win this district. His opponent, Cindy McGee, isn't running a strong enough campaign to convince the voters otherwise - we expect to see margins similar to Dieckhaus' 2008 primary.
District 111
Status: Republican Charles Schlottach is term limited.
Prediction: Both Justin Charboneau and Dave Schatz have tenure in local offices, but with a 4:1 fundraising advantage the momentum is clearly on Schatz' side. Expect to see him win on Tuesday.
District 113
Status: Republican Mark Bruns is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dan Klindt and Mike Bernskoetter have raised quite a bit, but Klindt did it in less time and he held back more of his cash until the final month of the campaign, when the spending will count for more. We favor Dan Klindt.
District 114
Status: Republican Bill Deeken is term limited.
Prediction: Chris Wrigley and Edith Vogel are tangling with Jay Barnes, who has the most cash to bear on the race in the final month of the campaign. Wrigley is Barnes' more serious competitor, but we don't think he'll pull off an upset.
District 116
Status: Republican Tom Self is term limited.
Prediction: Teacher Wanda Brown, the mother to one of Rod Jetton's assistants, has the cash advantage - but we're currently favoring Marlin Hammond, a somewhat famous retired football coach.
District 117
Status: Republican Kenny Jones is running for State Senate
Prediction: Both Caleb Jones and Jeanie Lachner have been involved with the Republican party, but Jones' enormous fundraising (over $67,000 receipts) locked this seat down.
District 118
Status: Republican Stanley Cox is running for re-election.
Prediction: Primary challenger William Barlish doesn't stand a chance against incumbent Stanley Cox, who crushed his last primary opponent by a huge margin.
District 119
Status: Republican Larry Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Sandy Crawford probably has a slight advantage in spending ability in the last few weeks of the campaign, and we're not sure if her opponent Warren Love will spend all of his $1k loan. We're leaning slightly towards Sandy Crawford but we're prepared to be surprised.
District 126
Status: Republican Ed Emery is term limited.
Prediction: David Jerome and Mike Kelley are competing in a slightly less than intense primary: both have raised in the avenue of $10,000, but Jerome had more to spend running into the final month of the campaign. We lean to Jerome.
District 128
Status: Republican Bryan Stevenson is term limited.
Prediction: Charlie Davis has a slight advantage over Bill Birkes, with a fundraising advantage of $2,000 that translates into just as much of a spending gap in the final few weeks of the campaign.
District 129
Status: Republican Ron Richard is term limited.
Prediction: With the help of a $20k self loan, attorney Shelly Dreyer has a significant spending advantage in the final month of the campaign - but White isn't running his race alone, he has broader endorsements and support from business organizations. This race is closing fast and we think White will upset Dreyer.
District 130
Status: Republican Kevin Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Businessman Bill Reiboldt will cruise to victory over Lynn Otey, with $50,000 raised over the course of the campaign translating into a more than 2:1 cash advantage. Reiboldt has the resources to run a much more effective campaign.
District 133
Status: Republican Mike Parson is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Cal Coker's $23.3k raised is as much as his two opponents (John Rummel and Sue Entlicher) combined, and was helped along a bit by a last minute self-contribution of $4,000. We expect him to prevail.
District 134
Status: Republican Jim Viebrock is term limited.
Prediction: Viebrock's chosen successor, Thomas Long, is going to win this race. His fundraising is head and shoulders over James Green and Mark Stuppy, the latter of whom lost to Viebrock by a wide margin in a previous primary. Long has raised four times more than either of his opponents.
District 137
Status: Democrat Charlie Norr is running for re-election.
Prediction: Reggie Duke II isn't putting up much of a fight to Melissa Leach, who has been very successful raising funds. Leach may have a real shot in the general election.
District 140
Status: Republican Bob Dixon is term limited.
Prediction: Both Lincoln Hough and Bob Cirtin have raised quite a bit of cash, and with $56.2k in receipts Cirtin has a strong advantage in the sign war. Lincoln is winning the door war, and we think this hard work will pay off in a slight upset.
District 141
Status: Republican Jay Wasson is term limited.
Prediction: Architect Kevin Elmer will win this primary hands down, due largely to his proficient fundraising.
District 143
Status: Republican Maynard Wallace is term limited.
Prediction: Two of the candidates, Mike Lind and Tracey Mooney, have run in primaries in the 143rd before - neither did well then, and both are filing limited activity reports for this election. Expect former superintendent Lyle Rowland to win with more than $10k raised through the course of his campaign.
District 145
Status: Republican Mike Cunningham is term limited.
Prediction: Between the three candidates (Darin Chappell, Stacy Atkison and Lyndall Fraker), a reasonably impressive $82,000 has been raised in this primary. Just under half of that was raised by Lyndall Fraker, who we expect to win.
District 149
Status: Republican Dan Brown is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Eli Steve Gospich and Robert Stoltz aren't running pro forma campaigns, but we don't expect either to stand up to surgeon Keith Frederick, who raised the most money by a 2:1 margin.
District 151
Status: Republican Ward Franz is running for re-election.
Prediction: No serious competition here. Franz will win the primary.
District 152
Status: Democrat JC Kuessner is term limited.
Prediction: Republican Paul Fitzwater outraised his opponent Ron Bohn (pronounced 'bone') by a 4:1 margin. We expect Fitzwater to go on to the general.
District 153
Status: Republican Mike Dethrow is term limited.
Prediction: Steve Cookson's fundraising advantage and background (long-time teacher) put him on the high ground against his opponent Chris Johnston.
District 154
Status: Republican Gayle Kingery is term limited.
Prediction: Attorney Todd Richardson raised significantly more than his opponent Hardy Billington, 55k to 30k. Going into the final month of the campaign Richardson was in a much better position to invest in direct voter contact: we expect Richardson to win.
District 155
Status: Republican Robert Cooper is term limited.
Prediction: Cooper staffer Diane Franklin is making a run at this seat and investing quite a bit of her own money, but Joe Roeger's fundraising advantage will translate into twice the spending power in the final weeks of the campaign. We don't expect Bernie Mowinski to play a serious role in this primary. Roeger will win.
District 157
Status: Republican Scott Lipke is term limited.
Prediction: Donna Lichtenegger and Gerald Adams have been neck and neck in the fundraising race, and spending in the final month is similar, although Lichtenegger held more back for the final week. Both have been very involved in the community (Lichtenegger more so on the political side). We're leaning towards Donna Lichtenegger on this one.
District 158
Status: Republican Clint Tracy is running for county office.
Prediction: Clint's mom, Debra Tracy, outraised her opponent Wayne Wallingford by a significant margin. Wallingford has run for this seat before, getting just 9.24% in a three way primary. We expect Debra Tracy to win.
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