The Source

Rough week on Ruckus

In their final show before the August primaries, several of the Ruckettes didn't attend and the others decided to make up for it by increasing the craziness level up to 11. We're not sure were Gwen got off to, but we suspect that either her disco ball broke or she couldn't find those peace symbol earrings that everyone stopped wearing thirty years ago. Gwen and Woody were replaced by Darla Jaye and Steve Rose.

Already on unstable ground, Shannin invited disaster by making this week's subject the Kansas Republican primaries.

Mary and Yael decided to go way over their heads, giving Kansas Republican primaries one of the worst treatments we've ever seen. To pick a few phrases they use on the Moran/Tiahrt race: despicable, ashamed, pathetic, 'nothing on major issues', etc.

The conversation doesn't get much more substantive that, but you can watch the clip here:

Unfortunately it's never clear what they're really complaining about. The conversation reveals only that they have never bothered to do simple things like go look at the issues sections of the web pages for either Kansas Senate candidates, attend events, thumb through news coverage, or even really pay attention to the world around them. Anyone with five minutes and access to Google could get a better handle on the race.

They don't 'get' the race, it confuses them, and that apparently makes them angry. Today's show ended up being mostly about Yael and Mary paraphrasing the narrative behind Republican campaigns, getting the narratives mostly wrong, and then attacking their own straw man version of the Republican party. Maybe this kind of reasoning is why there aren't any exciting Democrat primaries for them to talk about in Kansas.

If Republican campaigns were being run the way Mary and Yael wanted, all of the candidates would support Obamacare and spend their days doing arts and crafts projects or dressing their cats up in funny costumes or other things that don't persuade voters who are angry about the status quo. In short, it wouldn't be a Republican primary campaign.

In other news, the Ruckus drinking game fell apart a little bit with Gwen's absence, even with Yael and Mary working overtime. Only 15 shots.

For past weeks:

Primary Predictions

The 2010 Missouri House Republican primaries aren't beyond the point of having a few surprise upsets, but for the majority of the seats the pecking order has already been established. We took a look at every primary to see where the clear winners were and which races to get excited about on election night.

District 1
Status: Republican Brian Munzlinger is term limited.
Prediction: Neill Mckee was initially favored to win this race because of a $40,000 self loan - or at least, the loan let him decide if he wanted to win. As of the eight day report, he was still sitting on $26,824. If he decided it was worth the investment to spend it all, he will win.

District 5
Status: Republican Jim Guest is term limited.
Prediction: Glen Klippenstein's name ID and substantial fundraising lead make this seat a lock.

District 10
Status: Democrat Terry Witte is term limited.
Prediction: Jay Houghton will win the primary over Dudley Michael Duke, in large part due to his fundraising - but he'll face a tougher battle in the general.

District 19
Status: Republican Cynthia Davis is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dave Evans and Kurt Bahr have been involved with the Republican party for some time, but we're leaning towards Evans: he's the more experienced candidate, and had more money to spend leading into the final stretch of the campaign.

District 21
Status: Republican Steve Hobbs is term limited.
Prediction: John Cauthorn, a former State Senator, is a lock for this seat.

District 22
Status: Republican Therese Sander is term limited.
Prediction: Randy Asbury has a 2:1 fundraising lead over Tim Remole, and Asbury's role as a county commissioner may help (although he was appointed). Tim Remole is by no means a negligible quantity in this race but we expect Asbury to win.

District 28
Status: Republican Rob Schaaf is term limited.
Prediction: Delus Johnson and Mik Chester have comparable fundraising, and besides Johnson spending on TV and Chester on radio there isn't a lot setting them apart. We're leaning towards Chester because Johnson had to contribute $15k to his own campaign to catch up. Momentum may be on Chester's side.

District 35
Status: Republican Doug Ervin is term limited.
Prediction: The two candidates seem evenly matched. Noel Shull has a 3:2 fundraising lead over TJ Berry, but their spending in the last 30 days of the campaign will be comparable. Berry is Ervin's former treasurer, a connection that may help him secure support, but Noel has been involved in Clay County GOP politics for decades - making it a wash. Berry has also done an impressive amount of door knocking, but Noel Shull has been matching him lately. This race is too close to call.

District 47
Status: Republican Jeff Grisamore is running for re-election.
Prediction: Grisamore's opponent, Annalisa Zapien-Pina, hasn't been raising the sort of money needed to mount a serious challenge.

District 48
Status: Republican Will Kraus is running for State Senate.
Prediction:  Bob Gough, Kraus' treasurer, made an early injection of $15k in funds that has kept him in the lead in the fundraising race. That investment may very well earn him the seat but Gary Cross is closing hard.

District 52
Status: Democrat Paul LeVota is term limited.
Prediction: Without hesitation, two-time candidate in the 52nd Noel Torpey will beat Joel Blevins.

District 53
Status: Democrat Curt Dougherty is term limited.
Prediction: Neither candidate is raising a lot of money, but Anna Lynn Vogel was recruited by her fellow Republicans and we think she has the edge in this race over Brent Lasater.

District 55
Status: Republican Bryan Pratt is term limited.
Prediction: Sheila Solon has a history in Blue Springs local government, she's been raising cash, and her opponent Mike Parker trailed off recently. We expect Solon to win.

District 62
Status: Republican Nita Jane Ayres is running for re-election.
Prediction: This seat was a lock for Ayres up until a few days ago, but a surprise $15k injection of funds into Jeff Justus' campaign has leveled the playing field. Ayres has only held the seat for a matter of months, so we're not sure if she has incumbent sticking power.

District 64
Status: Democrat Rachel Storch is moving to New York.
Prediction: Candidate Damien Johnson is rated 'anti-life' by Missouri Right to Life - a big contrast to Patricia Verde's 'pro-life' rating. Expect that to count against him and give Patricia the ammo to win.

District 79
Status: Democrat Al Liese is term limited.
Prediction: Dan Johnson, a 16 year veteran of the Maryland Heights City Council, is expected to win this race.

District 83
Status: Democrat Jake Zimmerman is running for re-election.
Prediction: Patrick Brennan, a small business owner, will beat Roger Teagarden, who isn't running an aggressive campaign.

District 85
Status: Democrat Vicki Lorenz Englund is running for re-election.
Prediction: A 3:1 fundraising advantage for Cloria Brown will help her win against Al Faulstich, who reported limited activity in his 8 day report.

District 88
Status: Republican Andrew Koenig is running for re-election.
Prediction: Koening will trounce Ryan B Meyer, who isn't running a serious campaign.

District 90
Status:  Democrat Sam Komo is running for re-election.
Prediction: Expect John McCaherty to win this seat over Ronald Snyder, who filed an exemption declaring his intention to spend less than $500 in the campaign.

District 97
Status: Republican Walt Bivins is term limited.
Prediction: Gary Fuhr, with $27,000 spent in the 8 day reporting period alone, is the clear spending leader over Chris Brown and Bill Zobrist. Brown's $25,000 self-loan helped even the odds a bit - but we're leaning towards Fuhr, even though his two opponents are making a late run at the seat.

District 98
Status: Republican Brian Nieves is term limited.
Prediction: Paul Arand has a 4:3 fundraising advantage over Dave Hinson, and we're really seeing its effectiveness in the final two weeks of the campaign, where Arand has the capacity to outspend his opponent by a significant margin. We think Arand will pull it off.

District 99
Status: Republican Mike Sutherland is term limited.
Prediction: Mike's mom, Janet Sutherland, has the right name to win even if county surveyor Bart Korman has a fundraising advantage. We think voters will pick Janet.

District 109
Status: Republican Scott Dieckhaus is running for re-election.
Prediction: Dieckhaus is the favorite to win this district. His opponent, Cindy McGee, isn't running a strong enough campaign to convince the voters otherwise - we expect to see margins similar to Dieckhaus' 2008 primary.

District 111
Status: Republican Charles Schlottach is term limited.
Prediction: Both Justin Charboneau and Dave Schatz have tenure in local offices, but with a 4:1 fundraising advantage the momentum is clearly on Schatz' side. Expect to see him win on Tuesday.

District 113
Status: Republican Mark Bruns is term limited.
Prediction: Both Dan Klindt and Mike Bernskoetter have raised quite a bit, but Klindt did it in less time and he held back more of his cash until the final month of the campaign, when the spending will count for more. We favor Dan Klindt.

District 114
Status: Republican Bill Deeken is term limited.
Prediction: Chris Wrigley and Edith Vogel are tangling with Jay Barnes, who has the most cash to bear on the race in the final month of the campaign. Wrigley is Barnes' more serious competitor, but we don't think he'll pull off an upset.

District 116
Status: Republican Tom Self is term limited.
Prediction: Teacher Wanda Brown, the mother to one of Rod Jetton's assistants, has the cash advantage - but we're currently favoring Marlin Hammond, a somewhat famous retired football coach.

District 117
Status: Republican Kenny Jones is running for State Senate
Prediction: Both Caleb Jones and Jeanie Lachner have been involved with the Republican party, but Jones' enormous fundraising (over $67,000 receipts) locked this seat down.

District 118
Status: Republican Stanley Cox is running for re-election.
Prediction: Primary challenger William Barlish doesn't stand a chance against incumbent Stanley Cox, who crushed his last primary opponent by a huge margin.

District 119
Status: Republican Larry Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Sandy Crawford probably has a slight advantage in spending ability in the last few weeks of the campaign, and we're not sure if her opponent Warren Love will spend all of his $1k loan. We're leaning slightly towards Sandy Crawford but we're prepared to be surprised.

District 126
Status: Republican Ed Emery is term limited.
Prediction: David Jerome and Mike Kelley are competing in a slightly less than intense primary: both have raised in the avenue of $10,000, but Jerome had more to spend running into the final month of the campaign. We lean to Jerome.

District 128
Status: Republican Bryan Stevenson is term limited.
Prediction: Charlie Davis has a slight advantage over Bill Birkes, with a fundraising advantage of $2,000 that translates into just as much of a spending gap in the final few weeks of the campaign.

District 129
Status: Republican Ron Richard is term limited.
Prediction: With the help of a $20k self loan, attorney Shelly Dreyer has a significant spending advantage in the final month of the campaign - but White isn't running his race alone, he has broader endorsements and support from business organizations. This race is closing fast and we think White will upset Dreyer.

District 130
Status: Republican Kevin Wilson is term limited.
Prediction: Businessman Bill Reiboldt will cruise to victory over Lynn Otey, with $50,000 raised over the course of the campaign translating into a more than 2:1 cash advantage. Reiboldt has the resources to run a much more effective campaign.

District 133
Status: Republican Mike Parson is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Cal Coker's $23.3k raised is as much as his two opponents (John Rummel and Sue Entlicher) combined, and was helped along a bit by a last minute self-contribution of $4,000. We expect him to prevail.

District 134
Status: Republican Jim Viebrock is term limited.
Prediction: Viebrock's chosen successor, Thomas Long, is going to win this race. His fundraising is head and shoulders over James Green and Mark Stuppy, the latter of whom lost to Viebrock by a wide margin in a previous primary. Long has raised four times more than either of his opponents.

District 137
Status: Democrat Charlie Norr is running for re-election.
Prediction: Reggie Duke II isn't putting up much of a fight to Melissa Leach, who has been very successful raising funds. Leach may have a real shot in the general election.

District 140
Status: Republican Bob Dixon is term limited.
Prediction: Both Lincoln Hough and Bob Cirtin have raised quite a bit of cash, and with $56.2k in receipts Cirtin has a strong advantage in the sign war. Lincoln is winning the door war, and we think this hard work will pay off in a slight upset.

District 141
Status: Republican Jay Wasson is term limited.
Prediction: Architect Kevin Elmer will win this primary hands down, due largely to his proficient fundraising.

District 143
Status: Republican Maynard Wallace is term limited.
Prediction: Two of the candidates, Mike Lind and Tracey Mooney, have run in primaries in the 143rd before - neither did well then, and both are filing limited activity reports for this election. Expect former superintendent Lyle Rowland to win with more than $10k raised through the course of his campaign.

District 145
Status: Republican Mike Cunningham is term limited.
Prediction: Between the three candidates (Darin Chappell, Stacy Atkison and Lyndall Fraker), a reasonably impressive $82,000 has been raised in this primary. Just under half of that was raised by Lyndall Fraker, who we expect to win.

District 149
Status: Republican Dan Brown is running for State Senate.
Prediction: Eli Steve Gospich and Robert Stoltz aren't running pro forma campaigns, but we don't expect either to stand up to surgeon Keith Frederick, who raised the most money by a 2:1 margin.

District 151
Status: Republican Ward Franz is running for re-election.
Prediction: No serious competition here. Franz will win the primary.

District 152
Status: Democrat JC Kuessner is term limited.
Prediction: Republican Paul Fitzwater outraised his opponent Ron Bohn (pronounced 'bone') by a 4:1 margin. We expect Fitzwater to go on to the general.

District 153
Status: Republican Mike Dethrow is term limited.
Prediction: Steve Cookson's fundraising advantage and background (long-time teacher) put him on the high ground against his opponent Chris Johnston.

District 154
Status: Republican Gayle Kingery is term limited.
Prediction: Attorney Todd Richardson raised significantly more than his opponent Hardy Billington, 55k to 30k. Going into the final month of the campaign Richardson was in a much better position to invest in direct voter contact: we expect Richardson to win.

District 155
Status: Republican Robert Cooper is term limited.
Prediction: Cooper staffer Diane Franklin is making a run at this seat and investing quite a bit of her own money, but Joe Roeger's fundraising advantage will translate into twice the spending power in the final weeks of the campaign.  We don't expect Bernie Mowinski to play a serious role in this primary. Roeger will win.

District 157
Status: Republican Scott Lipke is term limited.
Prediction: Donna Lichtenegger and Gerald Adams have been neck and neck in the fundraising race, and spending in the final month is similar, although Lichtenegger held more back for the final week. Both have been very involved in the community (Lichtenegger more so on the political side). We're leaning towards Donna Lichtenegger on this one.

District 158
Status: Republican Clint Tracy is running for county office.
Prediction: Clint's mom, Debra Tracy, outraised her opponent Wayne Wallingford by a significant margin. Wallingford has run for this seat before, getting just 9.24% in a three way primary. We expect Debra Tracy to win.

Robin Carnahan's Family Favors

Robin Carnahan's visit to a bakery yesterday came far too late to forestall Rasmussen Reports from moving her Senate race from 'toss-up' to 'leans gop', as Blunt's lead widened to six points.

Carnahan's attacks have been growing more shrill, as she cycles through increasingly unpleasant messages trying to find something that will stick. We don't see success in her near future. There is a serious credibility gap with her strategy of portraying herself as an 'outsider'. People just don't believe it.

The attacks never had much traction, no doubt in part because of her own family and special interest ties and her extensive efforts to hide her own past. Carnahan has made a few tiny rallies in past months, but nothing that can't be explained by the margin of error: the lead almost magnetically returns to Blunt.

It's just too hard to portray your opponent as an insider when he's running ads where Barack Obama, an increasingly unpopular President, gives such effusive praise as Carnahan is a 'vote he can count on'.

The result?

 

Carnahan's strategy is failing.

Is there any sign of a game-changer?

No. Even if there was, it's not clear that Carnahan's campaign has the savvy to take advantage of it. They thought they saw an opportunity in the Gulf Oil Spill, but the online ads they launched were almost universally panned for their factual inaccuracy. 

Our advice to Robin: don't count on visits to bakeries to fix your Senate campaign. Or at least make sure the bakery isn't going to side with your opponent...

Lubeley owner Helen Lubeley Murray listened to some of what Carnahan had to say. Murray said afterward that the owners had allowed the Carnahan event as "a favor to a family friend," and were pleased to be hosts.
But Murray emphasized that the bakery's OK should not be construed as a political endorsement.
Murray said that her family's political decisions hinge largely on one issue that Carnahan did not mention during today's visit. "We're staunch pro-life people," she said.
Murray added that she was aware that Carnahan supports abortion rights.

When local businesses that host your events say they were only doing it as a favor for someone else, and all but stop short of endorsing your opponent - that's just embarrassing.

Will Dooley Be There to Welcome DNC in 2012?

St. Louis is one of four cities in the running to pick up the Democratic National Convention in 2012. Since Charlie Dooley holds a press conference every time a temp worker gets hired in St. Louis (typically when he and his corrupt bureaucracy had nothing to do with it), his lack of commentary raised some eyebrows. A big convention, and no Dooley trying to get his name in the story?

We half wonder if it has something to do with the Obama-phobia that has local Democrats steering wide and clear of Barack Obama when he comes into town. Dooley may not be anxious to portray himself as best buddies with the DNC.

Then again, he may be wondering if he'll be around in 2012 to see the DNC come into town. He got out-raised in the second quarter, and it's not like he can go around St. Louis County offices with a cup in his hand and demand 1% of his staff's salary (again).

After Bill Corrigan started an early TV ad campaign, Dooley sent out a letter (signed by him, but speaking in the third person, as if he's the Queen of England) with words like 'no-name', 'weakness', etc.

Charlie Dooley: "Charlie Dooley fears no one. Except that guy."

There's only one response needed to that, and it's supplied by Dooley's campaign finance reports:

"TOTAL EXPENDITURES THIS ELECTION: $935,148.26"

If Dooley wasn't afraid of Corrigan, why spend a million dollars?

That's a LOT of money to spend this early - it's how much you spend if you're afraid of losing your office and aren't holding anything back. We're not even through the primary and Dooley's campaign is already spending more than it is taking in.

When Dooley's response to a $100,000 ad campaign is an awkwardly written blast e-mail to some of his volunteers, ask yourself: who is on the offensive and who is reacting?

Dooley has been on the defensive this entire campaign. A lot of his actions (such as ending the practice of subsidizing politicians' cars) only happened when Corrigan made it clear he would drag Dooley's campaign over the coals for it until Election Day.

Our conclusion? Dooley is too worried about 2010 to start thinking about 2012.

Tommy Sowers Flip and Flop

Leave it to Tommy Sowers the political scientist to figure out how to take two very convenient positions on the health care issue: first, here is Sowers on the freshly-passed health care bill (April 9, 2010):  "I think it is going to be a good thing for the Eighth Congressional District." 

Cut to July 25th -- here's Sowers again: "The bill was far too complex and expensive but I don't advocate a full repeal."  How about a partial repeal, Tommy, would you support that?  We doubt it.

What changed in three months?  Oh, just about a half a million dollars in campaign contributions from wealthy out-of-state left-wing Nancy Pelosi liberals.  Clearly, Tommy Sowers is done with them, and they are most likely done with him after election sages like Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook are questioning the sanity of any big-time liberal dumping dollars into a race were the Democrat trails by 50 points -- Tommy Sowers is down roughly one point for each incumbent Democrat on the verge of losing a seat in the House this November.

Now that Tommy has extracted as much money as he can from Hollywood liberals and Wall Street, he'll try to 'run to the right' - but he shouldn't delude himself into thinking that his track record won't follow him.

Tommy has our sympathy.  It's hard to raise a million dollars from liberals on the coasts and run as a conservative in Missouri.  It's even harder to back down from pro-Obamacare, pro-cap-and-trade, job-killing policy positions and a negative campaign that lets everyone in on the secret that you care more about impressing your donors than you do about the time-honored civil political discourse of an opponent as popular and forthright as the one you have chosen.

Ruckus Drinking Game Results

Alcohol poisoning was only narrowly avoided this week, with only 20 shots including one bingo (with three others missed by one). This is a new best for the Ruckettes - Gwen kept her act together a little bit, avoiding several squares that are usually locks. Her dress code also moved dangerously forward in time, but even if you can take Gwen out of the 70's you can't take the 70's out of Gwen.

If Gwen doesn't want to participate, this game may be a little less fun in future weeks - the only upside being a measurable impact on the health of Kansas City area liver function. 

Before we get too complimentary, there were some serious struggles in the Power & Light District talk, which involved the typical Liberal blame game for when government enterprises start failing. One would think that pattern recognition skills would set in eventually and people would stop trusting urban planning projections.

Abouhalkah was clearly agitated about something, but we're not sure what. Maybe the dry cleaners lost one of his three shirts. If you see him around town give him a pat on the back and tell him everything will be okay and that the Fall LL Bean calendar will be out soon.

For this week’s results:

We’ve heard that some people are placing bets on the outcome of this game, but we’re sufficiently confident that the Ruckettes aren’t capable of coordinating score rigging. That’s why we’re releasing the official Source Drinking Game Tracking Chart, to track the record of the Ruckettes.

Robin Carnahan Sells Out... Again

We have to confess we were surprised (and slightly dismayed) to hear Robin Carnahan voicing opposition to leadership PACs.

She might have at least waited a few more weeks after her fundraiser with Obama, whose leadership PAC has collected over $4,480,000 over the last three election cycles.

And we don't blame the St. Louis Dispatch for wondering if the next Carnahan family reunion might be a little weird - after all, her brother Congressman Russ Carnahan has collected more than $224,000 for his leadership PAC. Lacy Clay probably won't be making a guest appearance there, and if he does he might just spike the mashed potatoes because he has a leadership PAC too.

Robin Carnahan drives by a fellow Dem.

So that's why we were a little bit surprised. This type of move has been in Carnahan's playbook since her campaign began, but she really went over the top with this one.

What turned surprise into dismay is that Robin Carnahan has accepted $260,126 from leadership PACs in this election cycle, while at the same time saying she wants them dissolved. If she thinks that leadership PACs are really so corrosive to democracy, why is she so willing to take hundreds of thousands of dollars from them? 

It's difficult to think of a way that she could make her position more hypocritical than it already is.

Rolla Democrat District Playbook: Flee the District

It's no secret that Rolla Democrat Tommy Sowers is popular with New York bankers and Hollywood stars (to the utter exclusion of voters in his Congressional district) but another Democrat has been silently toiling away at the same fundraising strategy.

Dr. Dan Brown, a Republican candidate for State Senate, has introduced some interesting numbers about Senator Frank Barnitz's fundraising:

-Only 7.6% of Barnitz's money came from his district.
-Just shy of 50% of his second quarter donors were PACs and special interests, with labor unions and Democrat leadership following up in the rear.
-Dan Brown is outraising Barnitz 10:1, a two term incumbent, in his own district.

Barnitz has never gotten more than 53.12% of the vote, and it says something when a vulnerable incumbent starts turning outwards to raise cash.

There might be some economic benefit to importing outside money for the local economy, but we're not counting on the Barnitz stimulus plan to turn this economy around.

New Blunt Ad

Democrat State Senators Being Smashed

If there was any question of whether the pendulum in the State Senate was swinging towards the Democrats, it can be put to rest. Republican candidates have a combined $3,419,000 cash on hand, while their Democrat counterparts only have $2,048,787.

What does that mean?

Well, besides that.

The Republicans' 20/11 advantage is secure this election cycle. It's not just about the Democrats failing to field enough quality candidates, failing to connect with their donors, or the party leadership - although all of these three things certainly contributed.

The Missouri Democrats can't even field a team to play in 2010. We're witnessing the same thing when we review the House of Representatives. Missouri is supposed to be a swing state, but this year you wouldn't know it.

On the Federal level, candidates like Robin Carnahan are behaving like circus contortionists, trying to twist and bend to the right with both feet still planted in the left. Carnahan's slip on supporting TARP is just the tip of a very self destructive sword. It's tough to campaign like someone you're not, and mistakes will be made. Eventually it will cost her the campaign.

There are always going to be safe Democrat seats in Missouri, and there will always be a few politicians who buck the political party trend. But increasingly, they seem to be rare exceptions.

The extent of the damage to Democrats on the national level still isn't clear, but in Missouri the tone has already been set.