In previous weeks we've covered Clay and Jackson County. Now we're heading to Northwest Missouri, to the 3rd, 4th 5th, 7th, 27th, 28th, 29th and 32nd districts.
Status: Republican Casey Guernsey is unopposed.
Overview: After a 6.46% loss to Democrat Jim Whorton in 2006, Guernsey won the district with a wide margin of 24.44% against Mike Hepler. Apparently that victory was sufficient to deter a Democrat challenge, but the Democrats' inability to even field a single candidate in this historically close district points to a serious recruitment failure.
Status: Republican Mike Thomson is running for re-election.
Overview: Mike Thomson, who has won his district by 30%+ margins in his two previous elections, has little to fear from Democrat challenger Robert Ritterbusch. Ritterbusch has only $372.47 compared to Thomson's formidable $27,682.51 cash on hand.
Status: Republican Jim Guest is term limited.
Overview: This is a reasonably competitive district – past Democrat challengers have regularly received around 45% of the vote. In a strong year, with a strong candidate, they could conceivably win. But circumstances haven't aligned for a Democrat victory in 2010. Democrat Judy Wright is leading the Democrat primary with $14,750 cash on hand. She's opposing Mike Waltemath, who has run several times in the district and lost each time. It's too early to count him out completely: in 2008 he raised $12,294, and this is his best chance to win in four election cycles. Expect a fight. A hard-fought Democrat primary will benefit Republican frontrunner Glen Klippenstein, who has $21,775 on hand. Klippenstein faces two Republicans, Ken Gillespie and Glenn Crowther, who have no funds as of the most recent report. We think that Klippenstein, a popular former State Senator (12th), is a lock for this race – primary and general. Constitution party candidate Gary Murray is also running.
Status: Republican Mike Lair is running for re-election.
Overview: Like the 5th District, the 7th has the potential to be very competitive, while in other years Democrats perform terribly. Democrats managed to field activist and central committee member Dale Toms, but with no cash on hand he has an uphill climb to beat the incumbent Mike Lair, who is sitting on $19,018. It's been 1992 since a Democrat represented the 7th, and we don't see that changing in 2010.
Status: Democrat Pat Conway is running for re-election.
Overview: Pat Conway ended a long career in county government to run for the 27th, winning a special election after fellow Democrat Ed Wildberger was appointed Buchanan County Recorder of Deeds. After losing to Conway by over 30%, Jason Gregory is running again for the 2010 cycle. Conway has a substantial cash on hand lead, $9,133 to $2,201. Barring some unanticipated event, we expect Conway to win in this deeply Democrat district.
Status: Republican Rob Schaaf is term limited.
Overview: In an amusing twist, the sole Democrat candidate (and '08 challenger) Mark Sheehan was disqualified from the ballot. (http://www.newspressnow.com/news/2010/apr/29/finances-thin-house-races/?local) He managed to get back on with a nomination from the Buchanan County Central Democratic Committee, but the whole episode doesn't say much for his momentum. He has only $1,708 on hand. Meanwhile the two Republicans aren't having any trouble raising money: Delus Johnson gave himself $15,000, and Mik Chester has $11,696 on hand. Sheehan managed to garner 44.48% of the vote in 2008, but we don't expect him to close the gap this time around.
Status: Democrat Martin Rucker is running for State Senate.
Overview: Can Republican Galen Higdon make a run at this historically Democrat district? In the last fifteen terms this district has only seen five faces: all of them Democrats – but Higdon won this district in his run for Sheriff in 2008. He’s a true south-ender who has demonstrated almost uniquely strong cross party appeal, so he’s in position to overcome the district’s partisan leaning. In an early sign of momentum, he edged out Democrat Bill Caldwell for fundraising, with $5,075 cash on hand compared to Caldwell’s $4,273.
Status: Democrat Jason Grill is running for re-election.
Overview: Grill has a formidable fundraising lead ($70,910.52 cash on hand) compared to Ron Schieber's $12,807. Taking on Grill will be a challenge, but could the wind be at Schieber's back? There are two main bases in Grill’s district: Parkville and the local Catholic church, St. Therese Parish. Schieber puts both in play, making him a uniquely strong contender. If one was to design an ideal candidate to take on Jason Grill it would look an awful lot like Ron Schieber, and given that this district historically leans Republican, this will definitely be a race to watch.
While a historically Republican part of the state, if the Democrats were on the offensive a number of these seats could have been in play (even if the odds weren't great). That doesn’t appear to be the case. Expect Pat Conway to hold on to the 27th. Ron Schieber has definitely put the 32nd into play, and Galen Higdon is the early frontrunner in the 29th. Republicans could conceivably take both of those seats, leaving Conway as the sole Democrat State Rep in Northwest Missouri. Meanwhile, every seat that’s currently Republican looks very safe, largely due to a lack of strong Democrat recruits.
We’ve only reviewed a small part of the state so far, but a clear theme is emerging: even in seats where we’d normally expect the Democrat to win, there are a surprising of viable Republican candidates being thrown into the mix. Meanwhile, Democrats are failing to capitalize on districts where we’d expect them to stand a fighting chance. It seems they’re on the defensive on almost every front, and are passing up almost every opportunity to take back any seats. When we review the Northeastern seats next week we’ll have another chance to test this theory.
I am MRTA Region I VP and have sent letters to all candidates in the northwest MO region to be a part of our meeting on Oct. 18.
I provided each with my e-mail address and phone number. I do not have the phone numbers for the following and have not heard from them. Was wondering if you could be of help.
Dale Toms and
Pat Conway (spoke to him at our MRTA Legislative Reception, but got no answer)
Thank you for any help you could give.
Sincerely,
Gay Dittemore
816-324-5932
Posted by: Gay Dittemore | September 29, 2010 at 10:22 AM