The Source

Jay Nixon's Fake Job Creation Problem

The St. Louis Post Dispatch looked into one of Nixon's press releases today and, surprise, it was completely misleading. First, the press advisory:

Advisory: Gov. Nixon to announce national company relocating to St. Louis, adding high-paying jobs in downtown area

At 10:30 a.m. Friday (April 30), Gov. Jay Nixon will visit St. Louis to announce that a national company will relocate its corporate headquarters to downtown St. Louis, creating more than 50 new, high-paying jobs in the city.  The Governor will be joined by representatives of the company and city officials, including Mayor Francis Slay.

Sounds like great news. But now, the reality:

So it turns out that the “national company” that is relocating its headquarters to the city with 50 high-paying jobs is actually coming from…uh, Belleville. It’s Landshire Inc., makers of those delicious pre-packaged sandwiches and snacks you can buy at gas stations and from vending machines.

We not one to look a gift sandwich in the mouth, but when the governor said “national company,” we were kind of thinking, you know, Exxon/Mobile or Apple.

And we were sort of thinking “national relocation” wouldn’t involve stealing businesses from other places in the metro area, which is something the city hates when it happens to them.

Why on earth would a Governor be parading around a move of 50 jobs within the state of Missouri? The press advisory leaves the misleading implication that these jobs are somehow being created. The jobs aren't new at all: they're disappearing from Belleville. It's not even entirely clear if the real number is even fifty jobs, as some news outlets are reporting a lower number.

This isn't the first time that Nixon has been playing games with job numbers. After gutting the Department of Natural Resources with layoffs, he immediately turned around and paraded the creation of 1000 temporary jobs in the Department of Natural Resources via stimulus funding. Guess which of the two he took credit for? 

Between taking credit for jobs that were never created or that were paid for by someone else, it's growing increasingly clear that Jay Nixon has a problem with fake job creation.

Barack Obama Bingo Game

Here is something to help make Obama's speeches almost tolerable. Just print out this page, distribute it to friends, and listen... (be sure to read directions at the bottom)

Rules for Bullshit Bingo:

1. Before Barrack Obama's next televised speech, print your "Bullshit Bingo"

2. Check off the appropriate block when you hear one of those words/phrases.

3. When you get five blocks horizontally, vertically, or diagonally, stand up and shout "BULLSHIT!" [or shout out “PELOSI” (means the same thing)]

Testimonials from past satisfied "Bullshit Bingo" players:

"I had been listening to the speech for only five minutes when I won." - Jack W., Boston

"My attention span during speeches has improved dramatically." - David D.,   Florida

"What a gas! Speeches will never be the same for me after my first win." - Bill R., New York City

“The atmosphere was tense in the last speech as 14 of us waited for the fifth box." - Ben G., Denver

"The speaker was stunned as eight of us screamed "BULLSHIT!" for the third time in two hours."

Russ Carnahan Advocates Pay Cut, Makes Up For It With “Perks”

Russ Carnahan is touting a proposal to cut pay for members of Congress. It sounds like a nice gesture, until you realize the total pay cut for every member of Congress is less than 5.5% of the Federal stimulus dollars that have been directed to Russ Carnahan's family. His brother, Tom Carnahan, received $90 million to construct a wind farm that isn't even in Russ' district. So much for saving money...

To that example of waste, we can add tens of thousands of taxpayer dollars that have gone towards Russ Carnahan's worldwide expeditions. Families in the 3rd district have been stuck with the bills to send Carnahan to more than 20 countries with virtually no oversight or accountability. The locations include, but are not limited to: Egypt, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Israel, China, New Zealand, Antarctica, Australia, Slovenia, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, France, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Cyprus, Lebanon and Kosovo

Russ doesn't just go to the taxpayers for a healthy dose of patronage - since 2007, he has accepted more than $81,175 from corporate interests to pay for congressional junkets, some of which miraculously resemble dream vacations.

Don't forget that he also saves a bit of money on his tax dollars each year by docking his 42-foot boat in Illinois.

It's ironic that Carnahan, who is almost unique in his extraordinary burden to the taxpayers, would be trumpeting a pay cut. Since little, if any, action originates on his desk - it would be fair to wonder why Nancy Pelosi told him to do it. Is this supposed to be his reward for his undying loyalty and years of rubber-stamping?

Tommy Sowers' Fact Checking Machine Breaks

When you read a paid candidate letter titled 'Sowers: A Fact-Based Campaign', do you expect it to be riddled with fact-based mistakes? It's hardly usual for a newspaper editor to have to include a line saying "Information in the letter below is inaccurate" (campaigns typically do their due diligence), but Tommy Sowers really knocked the ball out of the park with this one.

In an attempt to set the record straight on his New York and California fundraising connections, he denied attending fundraisers on both coasts. In the process, he attacked Jo Ann Emerson (who has raised far more money from within the district than he has) by inventing Emerson's appearance at a Washington D.C. fundraiser.

In the words of MOPNS, "You know what they say about people in glass houses throwing stones…"

Considering that Tommy Sowers has no record and virtually no stances on policies, he's managed to contradict himself a surprising number of times. If he can't keep his facts straight now - what would he do if he got elected? Fortunately that will never become a reality.

Carnahan Flip Flops On Obama Visit

After Robin Carnahan's busy schedule 'prevented' her from meeting President Obama for a Missouri fundraiser, many wondered if she would show up to Obama's 'main street' tour in Macon today. For a moment there it seemed just as likely that she'd attend the anti-Obama rally, given her campaign's deliberate decision to distance herself from the President (although as we noted before, the snub may have been mutual).

Now it seems like the Carnahan campaign is having trouble sticking to its guns. In a surprise announcement (hat tip to 24th State), Carnahan canceled a dinner event to spend some time with Obama. Apparently some scheduling commitments are more important than others.

Carnahan got cold feet, but the sudden reversal is only going to add to speculation about their relationship and about Carnahan's campaign strategy. What's the point of skipping a Presidential fundraiser if she's going to show up to an Obama event only weeks later? That sounds like the worst of both worlds: all of the association, none of the benefits.

Carnahan's erratic decision-making might be explained by her declining poll numbers. We should plan on seeing more of the same in the future. 

Rally in Macon

Missouri Republicans are holding a “Stand Up For Your Freedom Rally” in Macon on Tuesday, where Obama will be mixing things up by trying to meet with ‘main street’ Americans. Presumably this is supposed to make up for his constant neglect for the American public, whose disapproval of Obama has continually increased in recent months.

Those who show up to Obama’s events can look forward to having their concerns ignored, much as they have been.

Information on the Republican rally can be found here.

Poll Shows Sowers Getting Crushed

Apparently the 8th District isn't being persuaded by Tommy Sowers' hypocritical campaign. Sowers, who moved from New York and traded in his luxury SUV for a pickup truck, has only 18 points in the polls compared to 71 percent for Emerson. Only ten percent of voters were undecided, leaving little room for Sowers to improve his numbers.

Sowers' campaign has been heavy on fluff and out-of-state contributions: two things that don't help you very much when you're running against a popular incumbent. One of the few policies he has announced was his support for Pelosi's health care bill, which voters in the 8th district overwhelmingly oppose.

Sowers' commitment to bad issues and contradictory messages might help explain why Sower's fav/unfav was so poor: 8/7%. What's interesting about this number is that Sowers, who was relatively unknown before his congressional bid, hasn't even come under a serious attack and is already almost upside down.

If the election were held today, Sowers' would be doing worse than any opponent Emerson has ever had. A number of Emerson's opponents in the past didn't even run campaigns, leading to the amusing possibility that Sowers' campaign is its own worst enemy.

After attacking Emerson for "selective releas[ing] polling", Sowers' campaign selectively released its own polling numbers. The hypocrisy is staggering, but so are the polling results he released. They only covered a single subject: the Wall Street bailout. Sowers is campaigning against Wall Street at the same time that it provides his campaign its single largest bloc of contributors.

Note that the Sowers campaign neither attacked American Viewpoint's poll accuracy or issued disagreeing numbers: if there was any reason to be more optimistic about his campaign, it apparently wasn't worth showing anybody.

Meanwhile, Sowers is still getting trounced on contributions from within the district. He'll no doubt try to use his outside money to buy the district, but this poll seems to indicate that the voters just aren't buying it.

Obama Visit Schedule Developing

Last time Obama visited Missouri, he raised eyebrows by holding a fundraiser for Claire McCaskill, who isn't up for re-election until 2012. The immediate question was why he wasn't helping Robin Carnahan, who is running in this election cycle. Carnahan claimed she was out of state, and her unlikely excuse for missing the event was that she had a scheduling commitment in Washington DC. Despite more than a month's advance notice for the fundraiser, she just couldn't rearrange things to make room for the President.

It wasn't clear who was snubbing who. We reviewed the issue and both parties had reason not to like each other very much. The snub may very well have been mutual.

Before the Snub.

Obama's travel schedule is developing and it looks like he'll be in Macon next week. We don't expect to see Robin there.

Generic Congressional Ballot Gap Widens, Trouble for Missouri Dems

Democrats are reaping the rewards of their support for big government programs and the health care bill, allowing Republicans to take their first significant lead in the generic congressional ballot in more than a year. 

A compilation of public polling data shows wavering Democrat popularity being overcome by a steady increase in support for Republican candidates:



There's still a ways to go before the general election and the generic congressional ballot isn't a tool that can be used to predict specific races. But the data helps confirm the notion that the Republicans are about to have a very good year. We're already seeing the effects in a myriad of ways here in Missouri, with a shortage of viable Democrats on both the state legislative and federal level.

Some of Missouri Democrat's problems in the legislature can be laid at one person's feet (Mike Talboy), but even then it would have been a tough year.

One notable recent development is that Ike Skelton's seat is now rated by RealClearPolitics as a 'toss-up'.  That may be a testament to his extraordinary devotion to Nancy Pelosi (95%+ voting record) rather than any local or national trend, but he has still been serving in Congress since 1977. Five years ago the notion of him being thrown out of office would have been almost unthinkable. Today? It seems probable.

Frank Barnitz Abandons District to Fundraise Elsewhere

It looks like Tommy Sowers isn't the only candidate who is upside down in his campaign finance reports. Minority caucus chair Frank Barnitz received a whopping two contributions from his own State Senate district, taking a staggering 97% of his contributions from outside the district.

His opponent, Republican Dr. Dan Brown, did almost the exact opposite. He raised virtually every dollar from within the district and managed to beat Barnitz's fundraising by a 1.5:1 margin.

Brown ended up outraising Barnitz $29,581 to $19,100. To make matters worse for Barnitz, Brown did it in less than half of a quarter: making Brown's fundraising pace a substantial three times faster than Barnitz.

This is a tough year for Democrats in Missouri, which explains why some of them are looking for outside help (even from unlikely places). Dr. Brown's early success is more than a warning shot across Barnitz's bow: it's a wake up call.