Yesterday, Robin Carnahan made it official. Carnahan wants to be a U.S. Senator. But out of the gate she has a problem. Word came today that Emily's List is already endorsing Carnahan. No doubt, a more liberal, more pro-abortion. more pro-gay marriage, female politician is not likely to come along. Emily's List has their woman.
Here's the thing though, last cycle Emily's List lost two big congressional races in Missouri. They got killed in the sixth district with a candidate, Kay Barnes, who was supposed to be a rock star. And they lost with another, Judy Baker in the ninth district, in a race they thought they had a chance to win all the way to the end.
A lot of people are giving Carnahan the edge no matter who she faces. But we would suggest she will have a hard time if she can't win the sixth, the ninth or the seventh (almost certainly a Republican win, and maybe a big one if Roy Blunt is the candidate.) Carnahan would have to have Obama-like turnout in Kansas City and St. Louis to offset those losses, and we don't think she generates that much passion.
Obviously Missouri will elect Democrats statewide. But if you look at who has been elected lately, all have at least a modicum of conservative thought. Even Claire McCaskill tried to act like a conservative in rural areas. Carnahan won't be able to pull that off, and that will be her ultimate undoing.