Yesterday, Robin Carnahan made it official. Carnahan wants to be a U.S. Senator. But out of the gate she has a problem. Word came today that Emily's List is already endorsing Carnahan. No doubt, a more liberal, more pro-abortion. more pro-gay marriage, female politician is not likely to come along. Emily's List has their woman.
Here's the thing though, last cycle Emily's List lost two big congressional races in Missouri. They got killed in the sixth district with a candidate, Kay Barnes, who was supposed to be a rock star. And they lost with another, Judy Baker in the ninth district, in a race they thought they had a chance to win all the way to the end.
A lot of people are giving Carnahan the edge no matter who she faces. But we would suggest she will have a hard time if she can't win the sixth, the ninth or the seventh (almost certainly a Republican win, and maybe a big one if Roy Blunt is the candidate.) Carnahan would have to have Obama-like turnout in Kansas City and St. Louis to offset those losses, and we don't think she generates that much passion.
Obviously Missouri will elect Democrats statewide. But if you look at who has been elected lately, all have at least a modicum of conservative thought. Even Claire McCaskill tried to act like a conservative in rural areas. Carnahan won't be able to pull that off, and that will be her ultimate undoing.
Is Missouri ready for a lesbian Senator?
Posted by: Kurt | February 05, 2009 at 09:15 AM
In a district that was +19 for Bush in 2004, Blaine winning by only 2.5%, despite putting in over a million of his own money is telling. Plus, Carnahan won in the 9th district in the last election. Though 2010 won't be as passionate as 2008, like in 2006, democrats will organize and win on the grassroots level. As for the "lesbian" comment. I can see the 'hate' machine is starting to churn, it will be you're undoing in 2010 as well.
Posted by: Ed | February 05, 2009 at 10:45 AM
It is best not to under estimate a Carnahan. The matriarch won without even being on the ballot. Much will depend on President Obama. However, the memory of Bush and his dreadful administration will taint Blunt. And does anyone expect KC or STL to go Republican? Carnahan will be difficult to beat.
Posted by: Boatswain Mate | February 05, 2009 at 11:20 AM
You can't look very deep into her 2008 vote totals... she was running against, sorry to say, a goober McDonalds employee with braces... enough said
Posted by: Shawn | February 05, 2009 at 03:34 PM
"As for the "lesbian" comment. I can see the 'hate' machine is starting to churn, it will be you're [sic] undoing in 2010 as well."
Kurt is wrong to turn to such unseemly tactics. So where are your comments calling out the "Progressive" hate machine when they were openly spreading rumors that Matt Blunt is gay?
Posted by: It's called 'principle' | February 08, 2009 at 12:51 PM