The Source Predicts

Governor

On the Republican side turnout, especially turnout in the Republican rich southwest, will tell the tale. While recent polls show Kenny Hulshof with a lead, there is still a significant amount of undecided voters. If the southwest turns out more strongly that the northeast and the St. Louis collar counties, The Source thinks this one may be too close to call.

On the Democrat side, Jay Nixon is the obvious winner. The question may be, how much has he hurt his chances in November by running a stealth campaign through the summer? Only time will tell, but with each new poll his Republican challengers are getting closer. With John McCain up five in Missouri, Nixon has to be sweating a bit in the August heat.

Lt. Governor

Peter Kinder is the obvious choice on the Republican ticket with only token opposition.

Sam Page is said to have a lock on the Democratic primary, but we aren't so sure. Voters here have six very unknown candidates to choose from. The Source thinks Page will eventually prevail, but his election night may not be as smooth as he once thought.

Attorney General

Mike Gibbons gets a pass in the Republican primary. Gibbons has not taken this time lightly. He has been out statewide, working hard toward November.

On the Democratic side this is the most heated battle, or at least the most public of two heated battles. A case could be made for all three candidates to win. Margaret Donnelly is the only woman campaigning against two men, and the only St. Louis area candidate. This time that won't be enough. Chris Koster has the money advantage, a significant one at that. He has three traditional Democratic bases, unions, stem-cell proponents and trial attorneys. But he has one too many negatives. The Source predicts that Jeff Harris will win over Koster in a late night squeaker. Harris's control of the base will put him over the top in a surprisingly low turnout primary.

State Treasurer

Like Gibbons, Brad Lager is unopposed for the Republican nomination to succeed Sarah Steelman.

The Democrats running have all felt the down-ticket blues in this race. With much less media exposure as the AG candidates, and much less money, they are fighting for name ID. With over 60% of Democratic voters hailing from the Kansas City or St. Louis areas, this race is more about where you are from and who knows your name than any one issue. Andria Simckes will pull heavily from the minority and women votes. Clint Zweifel has the traditional Democratic insider vote. Mark Powell has the most name ID, as a former statewide candidate. And Charles Wheeler will have more impact in the Kansas City area than anyone is expecting. This has all the makings of a good old-fashioned four-way race. If it is that close all around, expect Powell to be the big surprise winner of the night.

Secretary of State

Both Democrat Robin Carnahan and Republican Mitch Hubbard are unopposed and will face each other in November.

Comments

[compliments to candidates]

My compliments to both GOP candidates for Governor. I hope they will join forces to beat Jay Nixon after the primary.

[thumbs down to Koster]

Koster will get what is rightfully coming to an opportunist. He will lose. His support is thin and the people who talked him over have kept their end of the bargain with money and their public support but that doesn't mean the Democrats haven't seen through him. Koster got the Morrison fever. Karma took care of Morrison and it will take care of Koster too. It seems Koster was as fleeting with his relationships as he was with his convictions and party affiliation. He left fiance for rich wife and rich wife uses her money to get even. I wonder what he traded her in for. What trumps rich for a candidate? Claire Bear (McCaskill) says nothing. She married a rich Republican for goodness sakes.

[SPSLE]

Wow, pretty impressive predictions; at least you got the uncontested elections right.