Survey USA Poll Flawed

A new Survey USA poll is out for Missouri’s sixth congressional district contest. The poll results show bad news for Kay Barnes, with incumbent Sam Graves amassing a convincing ten point lead.

However, The Source’s exclusive analysis shows that the poll is flawed. Survey USA’s sampling includes a geographic breakdown which is not representative of the district. When weighted correctly, the news is even worse for the Barnes campaign.

The inherent flaw is in Survey USA’s regional breakdown. They took samples which reflect that 64% of the votes will come from the Kansas City area, 11% from the St. Joseph area and 24% from the northwest region of the district. But, in looking at results from the last presidential election year, 2004, The Source has determined that that sampling over-represents the Kansas City market by ten points. In 2004 only 54% of the votes in the district came from Clay, Platte and the sliver of Jackson County that is in the district. 12% came from St. Joseph and 33% from the northwest. Using those more accurate regional numbers to replace the flawed number in the Survey USA poll, The Source has determined that Representative Graves’ lead would actually be thirteen points, 50% - 37%.

In either scenario the news has to have the Barnes campaign shaking their heads. Barnes has been trying to convince rural voters that she is a farm girl at heart. That effort does not seem to be paying off as Barnes is losing the rural meat of the district by more than 2-1. Barnes strategy may be backfiring even more as she was not able to even build a lead, beyond a statistical tie, in the Kansas City portion of the district which should be her strength.

Graves’ lead holds up across all age groups. Graves also receives significant support from Democrats, with 19% crossing over to vote for the incumbent. As expected, religious and values voters lean heavily to Graves. While liberals lean heavily to Barnes, they make up just a small piece of the district.

The survey was taken May 16th to May 18th, after the first television ads hit the airwaves in St. Joseph and after radio ads hit the rural areas of the district. The survey results would seem to show that, despite widespread Democratic opinion, Graves’ ads were the more effective of the two.

Comments

[PeachPit]

I think the democratic party is a little different now compared to 04...This seems made up...

[White guys drool]

Yes, it is different compared to "04". The difference is it is torn apart by block voting based on demographics such as gender, age, and race. In "04" the white male ticket allowed all these groups to band together. The contest between Clinton and Obama blows that out of the water and shows a sub culture within the party that truly is not diverse when faced with someone specifically like them running. It proves there is a feeling of responsibility to my race or gender above all else. The white guys never stood a chance faced with block voting and that must cause them to ponder their future within the party.

[can of worms]

White guys drool just opened a can of worms that the democrats would rather keep closed tight. They like their diversity until minorities take over the party. You just needed the right people to run to prove that point. If the Clinton and Obama trend continue what will the white male democrats do if they become the party minority block? Don't think they are not wondering.

[PeachPit]

Look at all of the GOP minority candidates. A true rep of the country!

[applecore]

We all see how well the Dems react to minorities running. It divides them and causes in fighting. It was easier for you when they fell in line behind your white male candidates and you could pretend they had a home in your party.