A new Survey USA poll is out for Missouri’s sixth congressional district contest. The poll results show bad news for Kay Barnes, with incumbent Sam Graves amassing a convincing ten point lead.
However, The Source’s exclusive analysis shows that the poll is flawed. Survey USA’s sampling includes a geographic breakdown which is not representative of the district. When weighted correctly, the news is even worse for the Barnes campaign.
The inherent flaw is in Survey USA’s regional breakdown. They took samples which reflect that 64% of the votes will come from the Kansas City area, 11% from the St. Joseph area and 24% from the northwest region of the district. But, in looking at results from the last presidential election year, 2004, The Source has determined that that sampling over-represents the Kansas City market by ten points. In 2004 only 54% of the votes in the district came from Clay, Platte and the sliver of Jackson County that is in the district. 12% came from St. Joseph and 33% from the northwest. Using those more accurate regional numbers to replace the flawed number in the Survey USA poll, The Source has determined that Representative Graves’ lead would actually be thirteen points, 50% - 37%.
In either scenario the news has to have the Barnes campaign shaking their heads. Barnes has been trying to convince rural voters that she is a farm girl at heart. That effort does not seem to be paying off as Barnes is losing the rural meat of the district by more than 2-1. Barnes strategy may be backfiring even more as she was not able to even build a lead, beyond a statistical tie, in the Kansas City portion of the district which should be her strength.
Graves’ lead holds up across all age groups. Graves also receives significant support from Democrats, with 19% crossing over to vote for the incumbent. As expected, religious and values voters lean heavily to Graves. While liberals lean heavily to Barnes, they make up just a small piece of the district.
The survey was taken May 16th to May 18th, after the first television ads hit the airwaves in St. Joseph and after radio ads hit the rural areas of the district. The survey results would seem to show that, despite widespread Democratic opinion, Graves’ ads were the more effective of the two.