The Source

Recall Funkhouser?

After months of speculation, a formal recall procedure was launched yesterday against Kansas City Mayor Mark Funkhouser.  A former city hall employee has filed the paperwork, and claims she has backing to get the signatures needed for a recall.   

The Source is thinking we should recall Mark Funkhouser, although in a different way.   

We should recall that Funkhouser was a well respected city auditor who rubbed politicians the wrong way for years before he became mayor.  It should be no surprise he is still doing that today.   

We should recall that Mark Funkhouser ran a pretty straight forward campaign against the status quo and has, as far as we can tell, no hidden agenda.  You get what you get with Mark Funkhouser, and you get what you voted for.   

We should recall that the mayor’s first eight months in office have been pretty much what he told voters they would see.  His concentration, for good or for bad, is not on wispy political issues but on substantive and critical policy.   

We should recall that Funkhouser won both the primary and the general elections with the support of Kansas Citians who were tired of politics as usual in city hall.  Recent revelations about contracts and back door dealings should be proof Funkhouser is needed.   

It is interesting to The Source that a mayor who has promised, and is working hard at, fiscal responsibility, is so vilified.  If any mayor needed to be recalled it was the previous mayor who has sent this city so far in debt it may take decades to recover.   

Maybe voters in this city value style over substance.  If so, Funkhouser obviously isn’t the right guy.

Political News Everywhere

The Source is watching as several Presidential campaigns visit Missouri this week.  The Clintons, John Edwards, Barack Obama, John McCain and Mike Huckabee all have scheduled appearances.  Polls show a clear Clinton lead on the Democratic side, while McCain and Huckabee are neck and neck on the Republican side.  Ads are up in many major markets.  Super Tuesday is almost here.   

The Missouri Governor’s race seems to be settling in.  We are still waiting on Robin Carnahan’s decision on the Democratic side.  On the Republican side Sarah Steelman, Peter Kinder and (we hear) Kenny Hulshof are all in to what looks like an exciting primary.   

The race to replace Steelman could be interesting.  For now it looks like former House Budget Chair Brad Lager against former candidate Mark Powell for Missouri Treasurer.  That could change, but we will keep on it.   

The now new Lt. Governor race will feature Jack Jackson against Sam Page.   Will an old Jackson nemesis join the race?   

It looks like the only unaffected statewide race is for Attorney General.  There, the fundraising/loaning on the Democratic side is the story for now.  

Florida

Let’s talk Democrats in Florida first.  Like Michigan, the Democrat Party has taken all delegates from Florida because they moved up.  Like Michigan, Hillary Clinton is ignoring that and campaigning in the state.  Perhaps she is looking ahead to the general election?  The result here will be little covered and where it is the pundits will discount a Clinton win.   

The Republicans also docked delegates in Florida, but by half, not all.  Here, the race is as much about status as it is about delegates.  The only potential loser is Rudy Giuliani who chose Florida to start his race for the White House,  Should Rudy finish fourth, his race may be all but over before what he thought would be his big day.   

The race for the winner-take-all delegates is between Mitt Romney and John McCain.  Fred Thompson’s exit doesn’t seem to have helped either to any degree.  Depending on the poll, either is shown in the lead.  A Romney win may give him a needed boost where he needs it for Super Tuesday.  A McCain win may help put him over the top in the southern states now going to Mike Huckabee.   

Either way, it looks as if Florida doesn’t settle much.

The Race is on for Missouri Governor

Within just 48 hours of Matt Blunt’s surprise announcement it looks like we may be down to three contenders for the Republican nomination. Here is an inside look at the status of prospects for the Governor’s mansion.

After serious consideration and consultation with several GOP establishment types, Jim Talent will not make a run. Neither will Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson. Our sources also say that Catherine Hanaway never really considered the possibility.

That leaves four possible contenders. Rod Jetton seems to be reading tea leaves, and looking for excuses to not make the run (his wife doesn’t want him to; he has too much at stake if he loses). In the end, Jetton will “what if” himself to death and won’t pull the trigger. What Jetton may do, however, is accept a position as a consultant for Congressman Kenny Hulshof who will decide to make a run at the state’s top spot.

Also committed at this point is State Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Since she was already geared up for a statewide campaign, Steelman’s decision was easy.

With Lt. Governor Peter Kinder having made his decision clear, that would make a three-way primary. Hang on to your hats folks.

The Ripple Effect

While Governor Matt Blunt’s announcement Tuesday that he would not seek a second term came as a surprise, the people being mentioned as potential Republican successors are pretty much as expected. Most of the names mentioned have either discussed a run for Governor before or were considered potential candidates for 2012.

Names on the list include U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof, former U.S. Senator Jim Talent, Lt. Governor Peter Kinder, Missouri Speaker of the House Rod Jetton, Treasurer Sarah Steelman and U.S. Representative Jo Ann Emerson. As of this writing, none of those had ruled out the possibility, some have said they were thinking about it, and one, Kinder, has made it clear he will run.

While an entry into the race at this date may prove challenging, most of the big names on that list have the fundraising and organizational capabilities that would have them up and running very quickly. Even assuming we see a Republican primary, there is plenty of time to launch a campaign.

Of course Blunt’s decision will have a ripple effect that has yet to be discussed. At least one statewide or congressional position is likely to be left open when its occupant runs for Governor. Since no one was likely to have run against that incumbent, new options may open up at lower levels based on who runs for that seat and maybe new options beyond that as well. There may be a ripple effect even on the Democratic side, as we have already heard calls for a challenger to Jay Nixon. If Steelman or Kinder run, that may also create new Democrat challengers to their seats as well.

On to Florida

While Democrats are skipping Florida (because the party has completely stripped them of delegates) and getting their own shot at South Carolina, Republicans will spend the bulk of the next week trying to win the first “winner take all” state of the year.

This is where Rudy Giuliani has drawn a line in the sand, opting to spend all his resources trying to win the bigger pots later in the game. This will be the first state where more than two men will be legitimately vying for the win. In fact, most recent polls show a close four-way race that could break any direction on the slightest news.

John McCain is sure to get a “bump” from his close win in South Carolina. Mike Huckabee should get a boost as well, as he continues to show the capability to compete. Mitt Romney may see some benefit from his uncontested Nevada win. All this leaves Giuliani on the outside looking in. If he falters here, Giuliani may struggle in what could have been a relatively beneficial Super Tuesday.

The wild card, of course, is Fred Thompson voters. Thompson headed home after his third place South Carolina finish and has dropped out of the race. With such a close race in Florida, where those Thompson voters go may be the key. While Thompson himself has been critical of Huckabee, most analysts think the bulk of his voters will go in that direction.

It is unlikely that any of the top four will drop out regardless of the Florida result. All will carry on toward Super Tuesday, none with the resources they would like to have to tackle twenty-one states at a time. Later we will analyze those twenty-one states, but there is a positive there for almost every candidate.

A Win for Barnes and Pro-Amnesty Radicals

Late last night Frances Semler finally gave in to the pressure from pro-amnesty forces and resigned from the Kansas City Parks Board.

Ever since Semler was named to the Parks Board she has been hounded, particularly by Kay Barnes’ personal henchmen, for her anti-amnesty positions. Her support of a group dedicated to securing America’s borders and committed to the rule of law obviously angered Barnes, who has publicly said she supports a way for those who entered the US illegally to stay and earn citizenship.

Semler’s appointment also gave radical groups the ammunition they thought they needed to blackmail city officials. Hopefully Semler’s resignation will not be seen as a capitulation to such obvious attempts to manipulate democracy.

Democrats Tangle Again

The remaining Democratic presidential candidates met in South Carolina last night for what was billed as a debate. Any sense that southern hospitality might kick in was gone early as both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama took hard shots at each other right out of the gate. It got so bad at one point that John Edwards rightly pointed at the two candidates acting like five-year old siblings fighting over a toy and asked "Is this what we want" for president?

The intensity of the debate shouldn't surprise those following the campaigns. Over the last few weeks both Clinton and Obama have begun to act, win or lose, like they deserve to be president. That misguided arrogance makes it easy to take things personally. This has become so much about who they are (as opposed to what they would do) that at one point Obama talked about the three candidates being a woman, and African American, "and then there is John." Edwards looked rightly upset by Obama's attempt to get voters to make a decision on such meaningless terms.

If one were to judge, as Martin Luther King, Jr. dreamed we could, based on "content of their character" both Clinton and Obama would be seen as selfish, bitter, arrogant, stubborn and vindictive. This is no endorsement of John Edwards, but at least he embodied the principles of Dr. King throughout most of last night's debate, preferring to build up, not tear down.

Honoring Martin Luther King, Jr.

On a hot August day, almost 45 years ago, Martin Luther King, Jr. gave what will always be remembered as one of the most historically significant speeches in U.S. history. The “I Have a Dream” speech is included in virtually every book of great speeches, in most high school history texts, and, at least in part, is engrained in the minds of many Americans.

King’s speech was significant then because it didn’t shy away from the politics of the day, but took it head on. King wasn’t afraid to address those who were promoting discrimination and he also had cautions for his own people and how they needed to handle themselves.

One has to wonder how Martin Luther King, Jr. would look at the political landscape today. Would he see the progress he dreamed about? Would he see a situation where “my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”?

Are we as Missourians ready to judge others completely by the content of their character? This is a great day for each of us to do some soul searching, looking for the answer to that question.

Recession is in the Media’s Imagination

It seems that many financial pundits are ready to make the call that the United States is in a recession. They point to housing problems, specifically the sub-prime loan “crisis”, the slightly higher unemployment numbers, and to high prices for crude oil, and thus gasoline and heating oil.

There is only one small problem. There is a classic and universally accepted definition of recession. Recession is six consecutive months (two quarters) of decline in the GDP. The truth is, we have not had even a single month of decline, so the pundits are just wrong.

Yes, the rate of growth of the GDP is slowing, but it is still growing. Ben Bernancke pointed that out in his address to Congress yesterday and made it clear we were not in a recession.

So why would the pundits deceive you? For the most part they are just another cog in the liberal mainstream media wheel. The media, like the Democratic Party, depends on your pessimism. Democratic candidates like Hillary Clinton and Kay Barnes need you to believe the sky is falling so you will think you need them to implement more government programs to fix the problem. In this case, they would gladly spend your money to fix a problem that doesn’t even exist.

South Carolina and Nevada Up Next

South Carolina is the big prize this weekend for Republican Presidential hopefuls. Right now it looks like a two-man race between John McCain and Mike Huckabee, but given this year’s results, anything can happen. Neither McCain nor Huckabee are in must win situations, but both could benefit from strong finishes and a weak third place from Mitt Romney. In fact, the race for third between Romney and Fred Thompson may be the story of the weekend. If Thompson sneaks into third he may well stay in the race. The Source would guess that a fourth place finish in the south may cause him to drop out. Watch for the mainstream media pundits to build up McCain on the talk shows this weekend.

In Nevada the big news is unions fighting unions. Court cases over caucus locations have taken media precedence over the candidates in the last day or two. In the meantime, Hillary Clinton seems to be maintaining a tight lead, but Barack Obama has some key support. This one is too close to call. On the Republican side, little is being made of the Nevada race. Most time, effort and money is going to South Carolina. The polls seem to be all over the place with Romney, McCain and Giuliani all having had recent leads. With the emphasis on South Carolina, a win or loss here probably won’t mean much.

Citizen Satisfaction

A quick glance at the suburban city citizen satisfaction survey in Sunday’s Kansas City Star will tell you that a lot of residents, in a lot of cities, are dissatisfied with government. In fact, recent polls show less faith and trust in government today than in any time in recent history. From the President, to Congress, to state officials and legislatures, to local city councils and school boards, those to whom elected officials are supposed to answer are finding fault with those officials.

In analyzing the data from Sunday’s column (and the underlying data found online), The Source notes that some of the worst satisfaction ratings are for basic services – those things for which government is essentially responsible. According to the print edition’s “top five” lists, the worst overall ratings are for “tax value”, or how government spends our money.

Based on the results of this survey, and of the past two Kansas City Citizen Satisfaction Surveys (which showed similar, if not worse, results) it seems that citizens want government to return to its roots. Government, especially local government, needs to provide, at a high level of satisfaction, the basic services for which it was intended. Only then should citizens trust public officials to go beyond the scope of basic services and tackle things like development, tourism, or other non-basic services.

Report Day

Today is financial report day for statewide and legislative candidates. It is the last report prior to filing being opened, and often a tell-tale of which races will be hotly contested.

On the Senate side, one of the most talked about reports in political circles is from Eric Schmitt, running for Senate to replace Mike Gibbons in District 15, who is running for Attorney General. Schmitt, who got a late start, raised over $125,000 in just about six weeks, and from a broad based of 240 donors.

More Senate news:

In District 1, Rep. Jim Lembke has about a $40,000 cash-on-hand advantage over his chief rival, Joan Barry.

In a hotly contested District 5 race, two of the three candidates have reported and Tom Villa is showing an almost $100,000 cash-on-hand lead over Rodney Hubbard. Robin Wright-Jones, the third candidate, has yet to report.

In District 7, Jane Cunningham and Neal St. Onge both had tepid quarters, with Cunningham slightly increasing her cash-on-hand lead to about $90,000.

In the now much discussed District 31 race between David Pearce and Chris Benjamin, neither candidate had filed as of this writing.

The Source will monitor reports throughout the day and come back with any big news. With several state-wide candidates having returned funds in this period, it could prove to be an interesting day.

Early Reports Are In

There are some early financial reports trickling in this quarter on the legislative side.

One of note is State Rep. Jim Lembke, now running for the 1st District State Senate seat. Lembke raised over $97,000 this quarter and is showing over $108,000 cash on hand. The lone announced Democrat, Joan Barry, has not filed her report as of yet.

In the Kansas City area, State Rep. Will Kraus, in District 48, also released an early report. Kraus, who has an announced opponent, raised over $27,000 and has close to $37,000 to spend.

The Source will be watching for more reports, especially in targeted races. Typically, this first quarter report in an election year sets the fundraising tone for the year.

She Cries, She Wins

Hillary Clinton kicked the stuffing out of her opponents in New Hampshire yesterday. No, not Barack Obama and John Edwards. Clinton’s real opponent was the mainstream media.

Virtually every pundit had Clinton with one foot in the grave. “No doubt,” they said. “Hillary will lose New Hampshire by eight” they said. “How can she regroup, how will she survive, she is out of money, she will shakeup her team,” they said.

At 7:00 AM yesterday morning the news was about the high turnout and how it helped Obama. At noon the news was about election sites running out of ballots and how Clinton’s team was planning a shakeup. At 5:00 PM the news was about Clinton skipping Nevada and South Carolina. At 7:00 PM, as the results started coming in with Hillary up, it was just too early to call the race for Obama. At 8:00 PM it was the exit polls that indicated Obama still won. At 9:00 PM we heard that college towns were still out, and Obama would still win.

Funny thing, just after 10:00 PM it was Hillary Clinton, not Barack Obama, giving a victory speech.

How did she win? It was hard work, good organization, deep pockets and a solid base of Democratic support. And, possibly, a last minute appeal to women voters which gave her a 20% jump from Iowa in women’s votes. Planned or not, Hillary’s emotional moment likely played a role in making her “human” again to New Hampshire voters, particularly women.

For the Democrats, the question is how long this remains a three way race. It is likely that John Edwards won’t last much past South Carolina, should he not win there. Where his votes go will play a big role in Super Tuesday’s outcome.

Missouri Legislature Opens This Week

Tomorrow the Missouri Legislature will open their session in Jefferson City. Both Republicans and Democrats are already touting bills they think will be priorities in the coming months. The Source thinks we will see several patterns out of this year’s final results.

Controversial bills will take a back seat, as this is an election year. Bills that legislative leaders may normally bring to committee, or to the floor, may be pushed aside if a vote on that bill could endanger members.

Healthcare bills will be in abundance. Healthcare is the number one issue in the minds of many voters. Expect bills to be offered which do everything from simple changes to major overhauls. Expect bills to pass that will depend on state resources the least.

Immigration will continue to be a major issue, but no significant legislation is likely to pass. Too many legislators on both sides of the aisle see immigration reform as a federal issue. Education will be a primary issue as well. Expect bills from both sides that will address higher education needs, particularly scholarships.

With a new Minority Leader, The Source expects the Democrats to come out of the gate with some aggressive bills and public relations efforts. It will be interesting to watch their posture as the session nears an end, and campaigning begins.

Carnahan Loses First of Two Ballot Language Battles

Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan was rebuked for her attempt to re-write ballot language on the Civil Rights Initiative amendment today. Circuit Court Judge Richard Callahan upheld a lawsuit brought by a Missouri citizen, ruling that Carnahan overstepped her boundaries. Tim Asher, who submitted a proposed amendment to Carnahan in June, sued when Carnahan submitted a completely different, very biased, ballot language to the Attorney General.

Callahan found Carnahan’s language “troubling” and said her argument for why she used it had “no merit.” Callahan, as required by law, then wrote a summary that Carnahan must now use. While Callahan decided to use the phrase “affirmative action” in his summary, he removed all of Carnahan’s inflammatory language from the summary.

Carnahan faces a similar lawsuit over her re-writing of ballot language for a ban on human cloning.

The new ballot language:

Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to: Ban state and local government affirmative action programs that give preferential treatment in public contracting, employment, or education based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin unless such programs are necessary to establish or maintain eligibility for federal funding or to comply with a court order ?

Next Up: New Hampshire

Iowa played out mostly as The Source discussed last week.  On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee benefited from an enthusiastic base.  While television pundits will focus on the evangelicals who voted for Governor Huckabee, they won’t tell you that he also won the plurality of women and of young voters in the Republican caucuses.   On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won by more than we expected, but Hillary Clinton and John Edwards were close for second.  Reports from Obama rallies across the state indicated the depth of support he had, and his team was able to bring it home.

Now all eyes are on New Hampshire.  For both parties New Hampshire is a different electorate, even more so for Republicans.  More often than not a different candidate has won New Hampshire than had won Iowa, and that will be the case here on the Republican side with a John McCain win.  On the Democratic side, Obama’s likely double win may be touted by pundits as taking Clinton out of the race, but The Source thinks she can still pull off a comeback with her stronger base on Super Tuesday.

A significant loss in New Hampshire could derail the hopes of Governor Richardson and Senator Thompson.  John Edwards is in until a loss in South Carolina.  The rest will likely stay until Super Tuesday narrows the field to the top two, or even produces a winner.

Iowa Heating Up

The Source is here in Iowa and the races are heating up even as the temperature outside drops.   

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, fresh off the national exposure of the Tonight Show, seems to be back in a solid lead according to the latest polls.  Still, Romney’s organization here is impressive and may be hard to beat in the long run.  Rumors are swirling that Fred Thompson has already let go some staff and will be dropping out either after Iowa or New Hampshire.  Further rumors point to Thompson endorsing McCain, which may endanger Rudy Giuliani more than anyone.  Could this become a three man race going into Super Tuesday without Giuliani even being a factor?   

The Democratic side is still as we described yesterday.  This is a three way tie with no likely winner or loser, and on to New Hampshire.  Some TV talking heads are debating organization (Edwards) versus passion (Obama) versus loyalty (Clinton.)  Others think Iowa will come down to women versus men, with Clinton squeaking out the victory.   

Tonight the campaigns pack up their belongings and transfer their staffs almost the minute the caucuses end.  The Source will try to report on some of the watch parties tomorrow, but by the time you read tomorrow’s blogs the candidates will be on the ground in New Hampshire ready for more non-stop campaigning.

On the Ground in Iowa

The Source is following the important Iowa caucuses from within the process this week.  We have had correspondents at rallies for almost every major candidate.  We have been following the polls as they come in, and monitoring last minute maneuvering by the candidates.   

At this point it looks like the two man race on the Republican side is certain.  While either would love the victory, by even a small margin, it seems Romney needs it more.  With over twenty times as much money and with a much larger establishment-based ground game, Romney should really be far in the lead.  Huckabee, on the other hand, does really well with a victory, and almost as well with a second place.  The race for third may be the most interesting as John McCain is fresh off Romney attacks himself and seems to be making small gains.  If McCain can place third here, Fred Thompson’s race may not go past New Hampshire.  As the Source has said before, where the supporters go when lower tier candidates drop out may well tell the long term story.   

On the Democrat side it is a literal toss-up.  Each of three candidates can claim leads in a recent Iowa poll.  Here the “drop out” factor is more immediate, since caucus-goers will decide on the spot where to shift their loyalties.  One recent poll found that second-tier supporters may not be enough to swing the tide, but in this close of race we sure would want them coming to our side of the room.  The Source doubts that anyone will emerge from Iowa with a clear advantage, and maybe not from New Hampshire.  Since the Democrats are giving no delegates to Florida or Michigan (for moving up without permission), Super Tuesday just became even more critical.   

It is rare that both parties have such exciting races in Iowa.  The Source is thrilled to be here, and will keep you up to date as much as possible from the inside.